Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Warning China not to invade Taiwan might sit well with voters but since November, Japan has lost just under ¥150 billion in sales from mainland Chinese tourists alone. </li>
<li>So far, the top department stores have proven resilient but since recent profit growth has been so dependent on duty-free sales, international tensions are a worry.</li>
<li>With luxury brands also warning about the impact of the US-Iran situation, the outlook may well be less rosy than some executives imagine.</li>
</ul>


Warning China not to invade Taiwan might sit well with voters but since November, Japan has lost just under ¥150 billion in sales from mainland Chinese tourists alone. 
So far, the top department stores have proven resilient but since recent profit growth has been so dependent on duty-free sales, international tensions are a worry.
With luxury brands also warning about the impact of the US-Iran situation, the outlook may well be less rosy than some executives imagine.


Profit Worries at Japanese Department Stores on Inbound Dependence

<ul>
<li>OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025</li>
<li>But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.</li>
<li>More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.</li>
</ul>


OK Super opened its first store in Kansai in November with a second already due in January and at least one more by the end of 2025
But then it will open 10 stores a year in the region aiming to take the lead in Kansai just as it did in Tokyo/Kanto – bigger even than Aeon.
More than 300 people queued to get into the supermarket and OK’s EDLP strategy is certain to prove a hit with customers in the region. Competitors will be hit hard.


OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

<ul>
<li>There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.</li>
<li>But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.</li>
<li>With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  </li>
</ul>


There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.
But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.
With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  


Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

<ul>
<li>While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. </li>
<li>But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.</li>
<li>This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.</li>
</ul>


While big city department stores have only lost 12.8% of sales since 2009, regional stores have lost 45%, emphasising how wide the gap in performance has become. 
But Japan is also witnessing the emergence of a new elite group of department stores who are far ahead even of their big city peers.
This elite group have found more traction among the new wealthy and affluent city dwellers and growth is set to continue, with record sales and – especially – profit.


Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is the main beneficiary of the Narita Airport capacity expansion. More travelers means a higher ridership rate. </li>
<li>It now trades at 12x PER, share price normalized post COVID. Trades at a discount compared to Shinkansen operator like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/east-japan-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1" rel="noopener">East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The short-term impact may be a little negative, but the mid- to long-term should be very positive. </li>
</ul>



Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is the main beneficiary of the Narita Airport capacity expansion. More travelers means a higher ridership rate. 
It now trades at 12x PER, share price normalized post COVID. Trades at a discount compared to Shinkansen operator like East Japan Railway Co (9020 JP) 
The short-term impact may be a little negative, but the mid- to long-term should be very positive. 


Keisei (9009): Airport Expansion Beneficiary

Japan

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

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Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP)

Profit Worries at Japanese Department Stores on Inbound Dependence

Japan's economy is feeling the impact of international tensions, with losses from Chinese tourists and warnings from luxury brands about US-Iran...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Keisei (9009): Airport Expansion Beneficiary

Trading at 13x PER, Keisei trades at a discount to other rail operators including JR East. It is also a long term beneficiary of Narita Airport...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Profit Worries at Japanese Department Stores on Inbound Dependence

​Japan's economy is feeling the impact of international tensions, with losses from Chinese tourists and warnings from luxury brands about US-Iran...

Michael Causton

OK Super Fast Rollout in Kansai a Threat to Kansai Super and Others

​OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

​Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Japan's Department Stores: Elitism Rules and There's Profit in It

​Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...

Michael Causton

Keisei (9009): Airport Expansion Beneficiary

Trading at 13x PER, Keisei trades at a discount to other rail operators including JR East. It is also a long term beneficiary of Narita Airport...

Henry Soediarko

Japan's economy is feeling the impact of international tensions, with losses from Chinese tourists and warnings from luxury brands about US-Iran...

OK Super has just begun expanding in Kansai, with plans to open multiple stores each year, drawing in customers with its EDLP strategy. OK Super...

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Regional department stores in Japan have lost 45% of sales since 2009, while big city stores have only lost 12.8% and a new elite group of...