Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.</li>
<li>Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.</li>
<li>Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.</li>
</ul>


The long awaited lifting of restrictions on inbound tourists in October seems to have given new confidence to domestic tourists too.
Major airlines, hotels and railways are all reporting a significant uplift in bookings with several forecasting that figures will exceed 2019 by March next year.
Retailers have benefitted too, notably department stores and lifestyle retailers. Now all Japan needs is for Chinese tourists to be allowed out.


Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.</li>
<li>Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).</li>
<li>Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.</li>
</ul>


This is now the third Int'l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.


U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

<ul>
<li>Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.</li>
<li>As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.</li>
<li>Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure</li>
</ul>


Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership -- overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials -- add exposure


Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

<p>FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.</p>

FY2020 was clearly a year when department store executives would have been better to live in an induced coma. Big city stores suffered especially because inbound tourists, their main growth driver of the past few years, disappeared and local shoppers stayed away, although some stores did manage to harness support from Japan’s expanding wealth market to offset the rout a little bit. The good news is that executives pushing for change in the last five years in the face of perennial intransigence are increasingly taking charge and the result should be a leaner, smaller and more clearly defined format that is more overtly upscale.

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

Japan

Hankyu Hanshin Holdings, Inc. is a passenger rail company serving the Kansai area.  The Company also provides passenger bus transportation and logistics services.  In addition, Hankyu Hanshin Holdings operates housing and urban development, athletic facilities, theaters, travel agents, hotels, and other leisure-related services.

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Hankyu Hanshin Holdings (9042 JP)

Japan's Retailers, Hotels, Carriers Rejoice: Domestic Tourism Surges and Inbound Traffic Rises

Tourism is back in Japan, both domestic and inbound. We outline some of the key beneficiaries and expectations for a return to 2019 levels by next...

Michael Causton

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

This is now the third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes with bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals,...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish reversals begun last week in $ACWI, $SPX, and $STOXX Europe 50, with each reversing topside their 4-month downtrends. Now, bullish...

Vermilion Research

Japan's Department Stores: Radical Contraction Still to Come if Sector Is to Survive

Japan's department stores are in trouble and were well before the pandemic but their outlook is much worse now. Major changes are required, not...

Michael Causton

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