HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The 11th national VBP has optimized the selection of price difference control "anchor points", which is an important signal, implying that future VBP will follow the general direction of “anti-involution”.</li>
<li>As long as there’s no significant difference in pipeline data, buyers are more concerned about the speed of R&amp;D progress and may not necessarily dwell on potential advantages and disadvantages.</li>
<li>Hengrui's innovative drug revenue was slightly lower-than-expected. The Company's 2025 employee stock ownership plan has lowered the compound growth target for innovative drugs from 30% to 25%.</li>
</ul>


The 11th national VBP has optimized the selection of price difference control "anchor points", which is an important signal, implying that future VBP will follow the general direction of “anti-involution”.
As long as there’s no significant difference in pipeline data, buyers are more concerned about the speed of R&amp;D progress and may not necessarily dwell on potential advantages and disadvantages.
Hengrui's innovative drug revenue was slightly lower-than-expected. The Company's 2025 employee stock ownership plan has lowered the compound growth target for innovative drugs from 30% to 25%.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.12) - 11th National VBP, Future BD Trend, Hengrui Is Facing Headwinds

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $<span style="color: #24a9a7;">ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136</span>
</li>
<li>We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.</li>
</ul>


A pullback is finally underway following Trump's Friday tape bomb and the decisive loss of the 20-day MA on the SPX, though $ACWI is testing the 4-month uptrend at $136

We are no longer near-term bullish which had been in place since our April 22 report, but we are still bullish intermediate-term and are buyers on pullbacks.
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US include the 4+ month uptrend (currently at $136), $134-$134.50, $131.50-$132, $130, $128, and $125-$126.


Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chow Tai Fook Jewellery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> is one of the best-performing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.</li>
<li>At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.</li>
<li>The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. </li>
</ul>



Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) is one of the best-performing Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) constituents YTD, but it is time to take some money off the table.
At 5%, its 12-month forward dividend yield is about the lowest in the last five years, implying limited share price upside. Valuations have run ahead of earnings momentum.
The recent recovery in Hong Kong jewellery retail sales is partly due to the low base effect. Additionally, a higher gold price will weigh on demand for gold products. 


Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso, Shandong Gold Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso, Shandong Gold Mining.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a> received marketing approval for Fovinaciclib, for the treatment of HR+, HER2-negative locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, in combination with an aromatase inhibitor.</li>
<li>In 1H25, Fosun Pharma reported revenue of RMB 19.4B, down 5% YoY. Revenue from innovative drugs achieved robust growth of 14% as it garnered RMB 4.3B in sales.</li>
<li>Fovinaciclib with two approved indications would boost the innovative drugs domain and given the market opportunities of the drug, this can help to somewhat compensate for the VBA related loss.</li>
</ul>



Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK) received marketing approval for Fovinaciclib, for the treatment of HR+, HER2-negative locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, in combination with an aromatase inhibitor.
In 1H25, Fosun Pharma reported revenue of RMB 19.4B, down 5% YoY. Revenue from innovative drugs achieved robust growth of 14% as it garnered RMB 4.3B in sales.
Fovinaciclib with two approved indications would boost the innovative drugs domain and given the market opportunities of the drug, this can help to somewhat compensate for the VBA related loss.


Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceuticals (2196 HK): New Indication Approval Opens Up Opportunity

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.12) - 11th National VBP, Future BD Trend, Hengrui Is Facing Headwinds

The 11th national VBP signals a shift towards "anti-involution". We shared views on licensing cooperation trend. Due to declining innovative drug...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, China Pacific...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceuticals (2196 HK): New Indication Approval Opens Up Opportunity

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical receives marketing approval for Fovinaciclib to treat certain types of breast cancers. During 1H25, the company...

Tina Banerjee

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China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.12) - 11th National VBP, Future BD Trend, Hengrui Is Facing Headwinds

​The 11th national VBP signals a shift towards "anti-involution". We shared views on licensing cooperation trend. Due to declining innovative drug...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI; Supports to Buy

Stick With Global Technology; Pullback Phase Finally Here on $ACWI $SPX Likely in 3%-7% Range; Supports to watch on $ACWI include $136, $134...

Vermilion Research

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Lot Has Been Priced In

CTF is a top-performing HSI constituent YTD, but with low dividend yield and high valuations, it may be time to sell. Recovery in HK jewellery...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, China Pacific Insurance, Tencent, Bidu, Akeso

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 12th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, China Pacific...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceuticals (2196 HK): New Indication Approval Opens Up Opportunity

​Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical receives marketing approval for Fovinaciclib to treat certain types of breast cancers. During 1H25, the company...

Tina Banerjee

The 11th national VBP signals a shift towards "anti-involution". We shared views on licensing cooperation trend. Due to declining innovative drug...

Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical receives marketing approval for Fovinaciclib to treat certain types of breast cancers. During 1H25, the company...