Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asia's PE at 10% discount to long-term mean, driven by Korea, Taiwan's earnings boom. P/BV is at 10% premium. All market valuations barring Taiwan are near or below long-term means.</li>
<li>Considering current valuations relative to long-term averages, Korea seems destined for rerating. Onshore China seems near bottom. HK looks attractive but the ongoing DM yield spike could keep valuations depressed.</li>
<li>Indian valuations, marginally above long-term means, look attractive but could remain depressed while DM rates stay high and Dollar stays strong. Taiwan valuations are not discounting a cyclical earnings peak.</li>
</ul>


Asia's PE at 10% discount to long-term mean, driven by Korea, Taiwan's earnings boom. P/BV is at 10% premium. All market valuations barring Taiwan are near or below long-term means.
Considering current valuations relative to long-term averages, Korea seems destined for rerating. Onshore China seems near bottom. HK looks attractive but the ongoing DM yield spike could keep valuations depressed.
Indian valuations, marginally above long-term means, look attractive but could remain depressed while DM rates stay high and Dollar stays strong. Taiwan valuations are not discounting a cyclical earnings peak.


Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion Done for Some Markets, Not for Others

<ul>
<li>Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.</li>
<li>Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.</li>
<li>In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.</li>
</ul>


Sharp dislocations in Asian markets have opened up relative value trade opportunities. Many Asian markets' valuations are near long-term averages, but some are far more expensive, and some far cheaper.
Going by likely mean reversion, we conclude that Taiwan should correct more while Korea should rerate. The other markets are close to their long-term means, and hence, difficult to call.
In ASEAN, going long Indonesia and Philippines and shorting Singapore could be profitable. Shorting Thailand could be an option too, from the perspective of earnings pressure due to tourism slowdown.


Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

<ul>
<li>Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.</li>
<li>Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.</li>
<li>Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.</li>
</ul>


Anecdotally, fund flows from foreign institutions are important drivers for Asian equity markets. But considering annual FII flows into Asian markets, and their performance tells a different story.
Taiwan and Korea's performances are the most uncorrelated with foreign flows. India's is the most correlated, despite the sharp spike in India's domestic flows. Thailand and Philippines are reasonably correlated.
Considering fundamentals (earnings growth forecasts and direction of estimates) and the extent of overbuying/overselling in a market, we think Korea, Taiwan should see buying. India, Indonesia, Philippines could be sold.


Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Equity Bottom-Up

HD Hyundai Heavy Industries  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.</li>
<li>Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.</li>
<li>Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.</li>
</ul>


The memory giants, Samsung and SK Hynix, have driven the Korean collapse, as AI anxiety and competition concern takes hold. However, there's more to Korea than memory and AI capex.
Throughout last month's carnage, Korean earnings estimates continued to be upgraded - not only in tech but also in financials, retail, basic materials, energy and industrial services.
Based on strong growth, attractive valuations, healthy balance-sheets, robust earnings upgrades, we highlight 15 non-tech Korean companies. Companies from industrials, select household products, basic materials have the strongest growth forecasts.


Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Martial law has been declared 11 times since 1945, but this is the first since Korea’s post-‘90 democratization.</li>
<li>The Martial Law Command's first proclamation blocks parliament, raising legal questions about its constitutionality and making any immediate attempt to end martial law uncertain.</li>
<li>Defense and telecom stocks could outperform short-term due to martial law, making them strong trading targets to watch.</li>
</ul>


Martial law has been declared 11 times since 1945, but this is the first since Korea’s post-‘90 democratization.
The Martial Law Command's first proclamation blocks parliament, raising legal questions about its constitutionality and making any immediate attempt to end martial law uncertain.
Defense and telecom stocks could outperform short-term due to martial law, making them strong trading targets to watch.


Breaking: Korea Drops Martial Law, Local Markets in Turmoil—What’s the Short-Term Trade Play Here?

South Korea

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

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Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)

Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion Done for Some Markets, Not for Others

All Asian market valuations barring TW are near or below long-term mean. KR and CN seem set to rerate. HK and India could remain depressed as long...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Breaking: Korea Drops Martial Law, Local Markets in Turmoil—What’s the Short-Term Trade Play Here?

Breaking news: Korea has declared martial law, causing local markets to be in turmoil—what’s the short-term trading strategy moving forward?

Sanghyun Park

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52-week Range

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Asian Equities: Valuation Mean Reversion Done for Some Markets, Not for Others

All Asian market valuations barring TW are near or below long-term mean. KR and CN seem set to rerate. HK and India could remain depressed as long...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Relative Value Trades After This Dislocation

​Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: How Critical Are FII Flows for Asia, and in Which Markets Are They Likely to Revive?

​Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Korea - If Not Memory, Then What?

​KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Breaking: Korea Drops Martial Law, Local Markets in Turmoil—What’s the Short-Term Trade Play Here?

Breaking news: Korea has declared martial law, causing local markets to be in turmoil—what’s the short-term trading strategy moving forward?

Sanghyun Park

Asian markets present relative value trade opportunities due to sharp dislocations in valuations. TW may correct more, KR could rerate. Long Indo...

Foreign fund flows are not the main drivers of several Asian markets. TW & KR show the least correlation & India the most. KR & TW could see near...

KR memory giants have driven equity crash, but many non-tech firms show strong growth, cheap valuation, healthy balance sheets & EPS upgrades. We...