Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows</li>
<li>Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025</li>
<li>USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains very weak, and spot rates are already below 2024 lows
Multiple deep-sea carriers have recently guided to a collapse in core earnings in 2025
USTR / MARAD proposed rule changes could add to US tariff chaos &amp; raise carriers' costs


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Rates fell by -24% Q/Q in Q424, but ZIM exceeded consensus Q4 revenue &amp; earnings targets</li>
<li>Management guidance &amp; commentary regarding 2025 profitability paints a bleak picture</li>
<li>In our view, investors in container carriers would do well to heed these clear warnings</li>
</ul>


Rates fell by -24% Q/Q in Q424, but ZIM exceeded consensus Q4 revenue &amp; earnings targets
Management guidance &amp; commentary regarding 2025 profitability paints a bleak picture
In our view, investors in container carriers would do well to heed these clear warnings


ZIM Q424 Results, FY25 Guidance: Listen When Management Says "We're Gonna Earn Much Less This Year"

<ul>
<li>Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025</li>
<li>January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost</li>
<li>We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"</li>
</ul>


Price momentum for deep sea container carriers continued to plunge in January 2025
January's revenue decline vs the Summer peak also historically bad despite LNY boost
We take down emerging consensus view that "all trade disruptions are good for carriers"


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers  (February 2025)

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program</li>
<li>"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to <strong><em>zero</em></strong> if Red Sea re-opens in H125</li>
<li>Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24</li>
</ul>


"Good" included Q4 earnings &gt; consensus, cash dividend, and US$2 bn buyback program
"Bad" included guidance of underlying EBIT dropping to zero if Red Sea re-opens in H125
Even Maersk's best-case view has FY25 core EBIT falling by -53% Y/Y vs strong FY24


Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

<ul>
<li>After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December</li>
<li>But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling</li>
<li>We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT</li>
</ul>


After four straight months of decline, our index of price momentum stabilized in December
But unsustainably strong US imports &amp; potential Suez re-opening suggest rates to keep falling
We retain our bearish view of the container shipping segment, and suggest staying SHORT


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Rates Down | Chorus of Weak Guidance | USTR-MARAD (March 2025)

Container rates continue to fall, and major carriers are guiding to a collapse in core margins in FY25. Proposed US rules could potentially make...

Tracking Traffic

ZIM Q424 Results, FY25 Guidance: Listen When Management Says "We're Gonna Earn Much Less This Year"

Grim FY25 guidance and bleak commentary from ZIM management last week bolster our own very negative medium-term view of the deep-sea container...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | No, Not All Trade Disruptions Boost Carriers (February 2025)

After a respite in December, container shipping price momentum plunged again in January. We expect rates and profitability to decline sharply in...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q424 Results: A Mix Of "Good" (Q4 Earnings, Dividend, Buyback) & "Bad" (FY25 Guidance)

On February 6 Maersk reported Q424 results that beat expectations. More interesting to us was management's thoroughly downbeat FY25 guidance, where...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: December Respite Likely Short-Lived | Stay SHORT (January 2025)

A ceasefire, if successful, will lead to lower rates in the Asia-Europe & Transpacific trades. We remain -ive on container shipping in 2025 despite...

Tracking Traffic

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