European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Event-Driven

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Hapag-Lloyd has confirmed advanced negotiations to acquire ZIM (press indicating a potential &gt;$3bn valuation); while no binding agreement exists, strategic rationale is strong and discussions appear substantive rather than exploratory.</li>
<li>We believe industrial logic is compelling given scarce shipyard capacity, counter-cyclical timing, and potential market share expansion from ~7% to just under 9%, with synergies across network optimization and procurement.</li>
<li>Key risk remains Israeli golden-share approval and transaction execution; at $22.20, probability-weighted expected value appears positive, though downside toward $18–20 is plausible if negotiations fail or political resistance intensifies.</li>
</ul>


Hapag-Lloyd has confirmed advanced negotiations to acquire ZIM (press indicating a potential &gt;$3bn valuation); while no binding agreement exists, strategic rationale is strong and discussions appear substantive rather than exploratory.
We believe industrial logic is compelling given scarce shipyard capacity, counter-cyclical timing, and potential market share expansion from ~7% to just under 9%, with synergies across network optimization and procurement.
Key risk remains Israeli golden-share approval and transaction execution; at $22.20, probability-weighted expected value appears positive, though downside toward $18–20 is plausible if negotiations fail or political resistance intensifies.


Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM – Pre-Announcement Event Note

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in <em>Ocean</em>
</li>
<li>In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT <strong>loss</strong> on lower freight rates</li>
<li>We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26</li>
</ul>


On Thursday February 5 Maersk reported in-line FY25 results and a Q425 EBIT loss in Ocean

In FY26 Maersk expects a -40% Y/Y decline in EBITDA and an EBIT loss on lower freight rates
We expect smaller carriers (including Asian names) to suffer even more than Maersk in FY26


Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

<ul>
<li>Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January</li>
<li>North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December</li>
<li>Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal</li>
</ul>


Price momentum remains weak (our index -22%), spot rates down sharply in January
North American Pacific coast ports inbound volume down ~5% Y/Y in December
Testing the waters: carriers remain cautious about quick return to Suez Canal


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Equity Capital Markets

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>What's new: a proposed acquisition led by CEO Glickman was formally rejected by ZIM's board</li>
<li>Shares have soared on deal speculation, up almost 70% vs October low of US$12.44 per ADS</li>
<li>But big obstacles remain: Israel's "golden share", the cycle, US and EU anti-trust regulators</li>
</ul>


What's new: a proposed acquisition led by CEO Glickman was formally rejected by ZIM's board
Shares have soared on deal speculation, up almost 70% vs October low of US$12.44 per ADS
But big obstacles remain: Israel's "golden share", the cycle, US and EU anti-trust regulators


Update on Potential Transaction For Israeli Container Carrier ZIM | Still Unlikely, in Our View

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December</li>
<li>But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand </li>
<li>We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December
But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand 
We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY)

Hapag-Lloyd / ZIM – Pre-Announcement Event Note

Hapag-Lloyd is in advanced talks to acquire ZIM in a strategic, counter-cyclical move. Political approval is key, but at $22.20 shares offer...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Maersk FY25 Results and FY26 Guidance: Leading Carrier Expects FY26 EBIT Loss Due to Lower Rates

Maersk managed to hit FY25 guidance, but also issued downbeat FY26 guidance, including an expected EBIT loss (at mid-point of range). Conditions in...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Spot Rates Weaker Ahead of LNY | Suez Canal Re-Opening Update

Underlying supply-demand conditions for deep sea container carriers remain weak, with poor US consumer sentiment and rapid capacity growth. A Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Update on Potential Transaction For Israeli Container Carrier ZIM | Still Unlikely, in Our View

ZIM's shares have surged over the past few months on speculation of a major deal, but we still see big obstacles that make a transaction unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

Although price momentum improved in recent weeks, we believe profit margins and returns for deep-sea container carriers will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

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