Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.</li>
<li>The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abb-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8703:1" rel="noopener">ABB India Ltd (ABB IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siemens-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6440:1" rel="noopener">Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


India's strong growth projections are widely agreed upon, therefore warranting a deeper analysis of the key factors driving this growth, to identify potential deviations from projections.
The Industrials sector, supported by government initiatives, plays a critical role in the growth of the Indian economy and is currently benefiting from a strong tailwind.
While ABB India Ltd (ABB IN) and Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) are compelling investment ideas, caution is advised for Siemens Ltd (SIEM IN) and Havells India (HAVL IN).  


<ul>
<li>This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).</li>
<li>The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. </li>
<li>These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. </li>
</ul>


This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March 2022).
The objective of the checks is to understand the underlying business narrative not to forecast the coming quarter and hence the limited sample sizes. 
These checks are used as a tool to identify areas of discrepancy between management commentary and ground reality that could be the subject of future deeper dives. 


India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symphony-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1" rel="noopener">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttk-prestige-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9779:1" rel="noopener">TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-electricals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9615:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN)</a> 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Demand Environment &amp; Business Performance,  Pricing, Volume and Margins, Market Shares, E-Commerce Business, Inventory and Outlook.

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Havells India (HAVL IN) / Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) / Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN) / TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN) / Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Demand Environment &amp; Business Performance,  Pricing, Volume and Margins, Market Shares, E-Commerce Business, Inventory and Outlook. 

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Household Durables - Havells, Symphony, Crompton Cons, TTK, Bajaj

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

In our earlier insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pli-schemes-let-s-not-get-carried-away" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45394" rel="noopener">PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away</a> we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

In our earlier insight, PLI Schemes: Let's Not Get Carried Away we had discussed our take on the recent PLI introduced by the government and how it can shape the economy. This insight focuses on the White goods PLI which have been handed a total budget of INR 62.4 bn. We further narrow our take on the air conditioners (ACs) segment of the white goods.
Domestic AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in from the government. However the recent development of the scheme, which targets only the component manufacturing has left most of the domestic large companies thinking whether to opt for the PLI or not.

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

India

Havells India is a multinational fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) company that manufactures and distributes a diverse range of industrial and consumer electrical products. Their offerings include circuit protection devices, cables and wires, motors, fans, modular switches, lighting, home appliances, and air conditioners. The company is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

India Industrials | Riding the Tailwind

India's strong growth projections require deeper analysis. The industrials sector plays a critical role. ABB IN and POLYCAB IN are compelling,...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight | Q4 Report Card | 59 Checks Across 5 Sectors

This insight provides select Industry-wise highlights from the 59 checks, across 5 sectors and 14 industries that we did in Q4 (Jan 2022 to March...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Household Durables - Havells, Symphony, Crompton Cons, TTK, Bajaj

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Havells / Symphony / Crompton Consumer / TTK Prestige / Bajaj Electricals

Pranav Bhavsar

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

PLI for White Goods: Domestic Companies Left Stranded

AC manufacturers were particularly abuzz when the first thought of PLI came in. However, the recent development of the scheme has left most of the...

Nitin Mangal

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