Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/polycab-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27877:1" rel="noopener">Polycab India (POLYCAB IN)</a> is in the limelight on the back of Income Tax investigation carried in December 2023 which revealed several accounted transactions.</li>
<li>In a circular, it is hinted that the IT department has detected unaccounted cash sales worth INR 10 bn, unaccounted cash payments made by distributors, and some non-genuine expenses.</li>
<li>However our forensics framework does not hint at any alarming red flags, apart from low FA turnover ratio, stock with third parties and board composition.</li>
</ul>



Polycab India (POLYCAB IN) is in the limelight on the back of Income Tax investigation carried in December 2023 which revealed several accounted transactions.
In a circular, it is hinted that the IT department has detected unaccounted cash sales worth INR 10 bn, unaccounted cash payments made by distributors, and some non-genuine expenses.
However our forensics framework does not hint at any alarming red flags, apart from low FA turnover ratio, stock with third parties and board composition.


Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>DPIIT extended conditional compressor import exemptions under the QCO framework till March 31, 2027, with volume caps of 30% to 100% of FY25 levels depending on compressor type. </li>
<li>The QCO extension simply defers the supply risk while the real pain, margin squeeze continues. The structural case for AC stocks is weaker than the summer demand narrative suggests</li>
<li>Voltas FY26 PAT fell 55% &amp; Amber's FY26 PAT dropped 10%, EBITDA margins compressed 4% to 5%. The import extension does not address commodity inflation, currency weakness and rich valuations.</li>
</ul>


DPIIT extended conditional compressor import exemptions under the QCO framework till March 31, 2027, with volume caps of 30% to 100% of FY25 levels depending on compressor type. 
The QCO extension simply defers the supply risk while the real pain, margin squeeze continues. The structural case for AC stocks is weaker than the summer demand narrative suggests
Voltas FY26 PAT fell 55% &amp; Amber's FY26 PAT dropped 10%, EBITDA margins compressed 4% to 5%. The import extension does not address commodity inflation, currency weakness and rich valuations.


India's AC Stocks Are Overheating: The Policy Setback!

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

<ul>
<li>The Indian Rupee’s decline to 95 per dollar is driven by a widening trade deficit, surging crude oil prices, and persistent foreign capital outflows</li>
<li>This depreciation triggers imported inflation across the economy, a substantial 3.7% to 5.2% EPS boost for top-tier IT services exporters.</li>
<li>Global exporters like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coforge-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8639:1" rel="noopener">Coforge (COFORGE IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sagility-india-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43717:1" rel="noopener">Sagility India (SAGILITY IN)</a> emerge as primary beneficiaries, whereas import-dependent sectors like Aviation and Paints face severe and immediate margin contraction.</li>
</ul>


The Indian Rupee’s decline to 95 per dollar is driven by a widening trade deficit, surging crude oil prices, and persistent foreign capital outflows
This depreciation triggers imported inflation across the economy, a substantial 3.7% to 5.2% EPS boost for top-tier IT services exporters.
Global exporters like Coforge (COFORGE IN) and Sagility India (SAGILITY IN) emerge as primary beneficiaries, whereas import-dependent sectors like Aviation and Paints face severe and immediate margin contraction.


The Rupee at 95/$: Sectoral Winners and Losers

<ul>
<li>We are structurally bullish on AC Industry given massive under-penetration at 8%, though FY25 suffered volume pressures from unseasonal extended monsoons and deferred consumer purchasing behavior</li>
<li>A 10% GST reduction and El Niño heatwaves will drive recovery; notably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/voltas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1" rel="noopener">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a> reported 11% january volume growth after 9 declining months.</li>
<li>Key industry risks include unpredictable climate volatility, heavy import dependence for critical components, intense price wars, and shifting regulatory energy efficiency standards</li>
</ul>


We are structurally bullish on AC Industry given massive under-penetration at 8%, though FY25 suffered volume pressures from unseasonal extended monsoons and deferred consumer purchasing behavior
A 10% GST reduction and El Niño heatwaves will drive recovery; notably, Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN) reported 11% january volume growth after 9 declining months.
Key industry risks include unpredictable climate volatility, heavy import dependence for critical components, intense price wars, and shifting regulatory energy efficiency standards


AC Industry Turnaround: Riding The Great Indian Cooling Boom from El Niño to GST Cuts

<ul>
<li>The weak monsoon has slowed AC sales, leading to an excess of inventory. This disruption has caused delays in sales cycles, resulting in inventory challenges for dealers and manufacturers.</li>
<li>While festive demand and lower prices may boost sales, competition remains fierce, and margins are under pressure. Manufacturers face challenges in maintaining profitability amidst shifting market dynamics.</li>
<li>The industry is transitioning, influenced by policy changes, weather shifts, and evolving consumer preferences. These factors are reshaping demand and will significantly impact the market's growth in the future.</li>
</ul>


The weak monsoon has slowed AC sales, leading to an excess of inventory. This disruption has caused delays in sales cycles, resulting in inventory challenges for dealers and manufacturers.
While festive demand and lower prices may boost sales, competition remains fierce, and margins are under pressure. Manufacturers face challenges in maintaining profitability amidst shifting market dynamics.
The industry is transitioning, influenced by policy changes, weather shifts, and evolving consumer preferences. These factors are reshaping demand and will significantly impact the market's growth in the future.


Thematic Report: Indian Air Conditioner Industry: The Summer That Tested India’s Cooling Story

India

Havells India is a multinational fast-moving electrical goods (FMEG) company that manufactures and distributes a diverse range of industrial and consumer electrical products. Their offerings include circuit protection devices, cables and wires, motors, fans, modular switches, lighting, home appliances, and air conditioners. The company is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Havells India (HAVL IN)

Polycab India- Forensic Analysis

Polycab is under scrutiny for IT investigation that uncovered unaccounted transactions, but the forensics do give mixed signals. Attention should...

Nitin Mangal

India's AC Stocks Are Overheating: The Policy Setback!

DPIIT extends compressor import exemptions under QCO framework till 2027, but margin squeeze continues for AC stocks despite volume caps and PAT...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Rupee at 95/$: Sectoral Winners and Losers

Indian Rupee's decline to 95 per dollar due to trade deficit, oil prices, and capital outflows leads to imported inflation but boosts EPS for IT...

Sudarshan Bhandari

AC Industry Turnaround: Riding The Great Indian Cooling Boom from El Niño to GST Cuts

Structurally bullish on AC Industry despite FY25 volume pressures; potential recovery driven by GST reduction and El Niño heatwaves, with risks...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Indian Air Conditioner Industry: The Summer That Tested India’s Cooling Story

Weak monsoon slows AC sales, leading to excess inventory and challenges for dealers/manufacturers. Festive demand and lower prices may boost...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Polycab India- Forensic Analysis

​Polycab is under scrutiny for IT investigation that uncovered unaccounted transactions, but the forensics do give mixed signals. Attention should...

Nitin Mangal

India's AC Stocks Are Overheating: The Policy Setback!

​DPIIT extends compressor import exemptions under QCO framework till 2027, but margin squeeze continues for AC stocks despite volume caps and PAT...

Nimish Maheshwari

The Rupee at 95/$: Sectoral Winners and Losers

​Indian Rupee's decline to 95 per dollar due to trade deficit, oil prices, and capital outflows leads to imported inflation but boosts EPS for IT...

Sudarshan Bhandari

AC Industry Turnaround: Riding The Great Indian Cooling Boom from El Niño to GST Cuts

​Structurally bullish on AC Industry despite FY25 volume pressures; potential recovery driven by GST reduction and El Niño heatwaves, with risks...

Nimish Maheshwari

Thematic Report: Indian Air Conditioner Industry: The Summer That Tested India’s Cooling Story

​Weak monsoon slows AC sales, leading to excess inventory and challenges for dealers/manufacturers. Festive demand and lower prices may boost...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Polycab is under scrutiny for IT investigation that uncovered unaccounted transactions, but the forensics do give mixed signals. Attention should...

DPIIT extends compressor import exemptions under QCO framework till 2027, but margin squeeze continues for AC stocks despite volume caps and PAT...

Indian Rupee's decline to 95 per dollar due to trade deficit, oil prices, and capital outflows leads to imported inflation but boosts EPS for IT...

Structurally bullish on AC Industry despite FY25 volume pressures; potential recovery driven by GST reduction and El Niño heatwaves, with risks...

Weak monsoon slows AC sales, leading to excess inventory and challenges for dealers/manufacturers. Festive demand and lower prices may boost...