Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services


Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following the purple patch of growth experienced in the wake of accelerated digitization following the COVID-19 pandemic, revenue growth has continued to slow down during FY2023, for the sector.</li>
<li>Operating margin deterioration has continued, despite significant FX tailwinds, largely due to the inflationary impact of increased employee attrition rates, to record levels, across the industry.</li>
<li>Given weakening near-term revenue growth prospects and valuation levels barely touching fair value levels, we remain cautious on the sector.</li>
</ul>


Following the purple patch of growth experienced in the wake of accelerated digitization following the COVID-19 pandemic, revenue growth has continued to slow down during FY2023, for the sector.
Operating margin deterioration has continued, despite significant FX tailwinds, largely due to the inflationary impact of increased employee attrition rates, to record levels, across the industry.
Given weakening near-term revenue growth prospects and valuation levels barely touching fair value levels, we remain cautious on the sector.


Indian IT Services: Weakening Revenue Dynamics, and Above-Fair Valuation Levels, Keep Us Side-Lined

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HCL Technologies: HCL Tech (HCLT) posted better-than-estimated growth and a slightly higher margin in Q2FY23</li><li>Revenue growth, at 3.8% QoQ CC and 15.8% YoY CC, is tracking better than last year’s, led by 5%+ sequential growth in both IT &amp; BS as well as ER&amp;D segments</li><li>Q2 revenue outperformance and H2 visibility syncs with upgrade in revenue guidance to 13.5-14.5% CC for FY23E (vs 12-14% earlier), including Services (ex-P&amp;P) growth guidance of 16-17% CC</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies: HCL Tech (HCLT) posted better-than-estimated growth and a slightly higher margin in Q2FY23Revenue growth, at 3.8% QoQ CC and 15.8% YoY CC, is tracking better than last year’s, led by 5%+ sequential growth in both IT &amp; BS as well as ER&amp;D segmentsQ2 revenue outperformance and H2 visibility syncs with upgrade in revenue guidance to 13.5-14.5% CC for FY23E (vs 12-14% earlier), including Services (ex-P&amp;P) growth guidance of 16-17% CCContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: HCL Technologies, Wipro

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HCL Technologies Ltd (HCL Tech) Q2FY23 performance stood above our expectations.</li><li>The company reported revenues of Rs 24,686 Cr, up 5.2% QoQ and 19.5% YoY.</li><li>The operating profits stood at Rs 4,427 Cr, registering a growth of 10.9% QoQ, and the operating margin improved by 100bps QoQ to 18%. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies Ltd (HCL Tech) Q2FY23 performance stood above our expectations.The company reported revenues of Rs 24,686 Cr, up 5.2% QoQ and 19.5% YoY.The operating profits stood at Rs 4,427 Cr, registering a growth of 10.9% QoQ, and the operating margin improved by 100bps QoQ to 18%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HCL Technologies Ltd - All-Round Beat; Guidance Revised Upwards

India

HCL Technologies Limited provides software development and related engineering services.  The Group's technologies utilize a variety of technologies, including Internet and e-commerce, networking, internet telephony, embedded software, ASIC/VLSI design and testing, satellite and wireless communications, and component based object technologies, including COM, DCOM and COBRA.

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HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish reversals: Taiwan $TAIEX, Korea $KOSPI, Netherlands' $AEX reversing YTD downtrends, while Hang Seng $HSI and China's CSI 300 are reversing...

Vermilion Research

Screening for GEMs: November 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Indian IT Services: Weakening Revenue Dynamics, and Above-Fair Valuation Levels, Keep Us Side-Lined

In this insight, we take a longer-term view on the 4 largest Indian IT Services companies, analysing recent financial performance, growth outlook,...

Wium Malan, CFA

HSIE Results Daily: HCL Technologies, Wipro

Revenue growth, at 3.8% QoQ CC and 15.8% YoY CC, is tracking better than last year’s, led by 5%+ sequential growth in both IT & BS as well as ER&D...

HDFC Securities

HCL Technologies Ltd - All-Round Beat; Guidance Revised Upwards

HCL Technologies Ltd (HCL Tech) Q2FY23 performance stood above our expectations. The company reported revenues of Rs 24,686 Cr, up 5.2% QoQ and...

Axis Direct

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