Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Authum Investment & Infrastructure / Index Rebalance

Authum Investment & Infrastructure (AIIL IN)

<ul>
<li>With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 26.5bn (US$290m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.</li>
<li>Removing the newly listed stocks and upward/downward migrations, the remaining potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last 6 months. Near-term performance has suffered.</li>
</ul>


With the review period now complete, there could be 15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the March rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 26.5bn (US$290m). With over US$43bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
Removing the newly listed stocks and upward/downward migrations, the remaining potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last 6 months. Near-term performance has suffered.


NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

National Securities Depository / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-securities-depository-ltd-nsdl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39939:1" rel="noopener">NSDL (NSDL IN)</a> raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



NSDL (NSDL IN) raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
It is the largest depository in India in terms of number of issuers, number of active instruments, market share in demat value of settlement volume and value of assets.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: NSDL IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn Lockup Release with Most Sitting on 10x Gains

<ul>
<li>Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 19 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 8 could have passive outflows in February.</li>
</ul>


Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-December in January. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in flow from passive trackers.
Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 19 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 8 could have passive outflows in February.


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February 2026

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearing completion, there could be 5 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in March.</li>
<li>Constituent changes and capping for non-F&amp;O stocks leads to an estimated one-way turnover of 10.5% and in a round-trip trade of INR 88.5bn (US$974m).</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and there could be further performance over the next few weeks ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearing completion, there could be 5 changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in March.
Constituent changes and capping for non-F&amp;O stocks leads to an estimated one-way turnover of 10.5% and in a round-trip trade of INR 88.5bn (US$974m).
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and there could be further performance over the next few weeks ahead of the announcement of the changes.


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes & Close Names

<ul>
<li>We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 15 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 8 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.</li>
<li>SEBI has reclassified Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) as equity related instruments and REITs will be added to the AMFI classification from the upcoming review.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 11 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 3 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 15 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
From the new listings, 4 stocks are expected to be added to Large Cap, 8 stocks are expected to be added to Mid Cap, and multiple stocks to Small Cap.
SEBI has reclassified Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) as equity related instruments and REITs will be added to the AMFI classification from the upcoming review.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings and REIT Inclusion Drive Changes

India

HDFC Asset Management is a leading Indian investment manager, serving as the asset management arm of HDFC Bank. It provides a comprehensive suite of savings and investment products, including mutual funds, portfolio management services (PMS), and alternative investment funds (AIF) across various asset classes. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1999 (commenced operations in 2000).

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HDFC Asset Management (HDFCAMC IN)

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Potential Changes in March

There could be 15 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.8% and round-trip trade is INR 26.5bn. With over US$43bn tracking the index...

Brian Freitas

Aequitas: NSDL IPO Lockup - US$1.6bn Lockup Release with Most Sitting on 10x Gains

NSDL (NSDL IN) raised around US$460m in its India IPO. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon, who are all sitting on at least...

Sumeet Singh

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in February 2026

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices in February. Passive trackers will need to...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance Preview: Forecast Changes & Close Names

There could be 5 changes in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 10.5% and round-trip trade is INR 88.5bn (US$974m). Passives need to trade more...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2025): New Listings and REIT Inclusion Drive Changes

36 stocks could see size reclassification in Jan. 12 new stocks could be added to Large and Mid-cap. REITs will be added to the AMFI classification...

Brian Freitas

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