Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> that will be implemented starting from December 30.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icici-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:547:1" rel="noopener">ICICI Bank Ltd)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is falling this week, so we analyze our model's WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose. 
</li>
</ul>



Brian Freitas has discussed in a recent insight the methodology changes for the NSE Nifty Bank Index that will be implemented starting from December 30.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of the two stocks that passive trackers need to sell (the other is ICICI Bank Ltd).

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is falling this week, so we analyze our model's WEEKLY support entry zones, to evaluate how much HDFC Bank can fall, for hedging or re-entry purpose. 



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Tactical Outlook Post–NIFTY Bank Index Overhaul

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/union-bank-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:546:1" rel="noopener">Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and short Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) targets an 8% return. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and short Union Bank of India (UNBK IN) targets an 8% return. 

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Vs. Union Bank Of India (UNBK IN): Pair Trade in Indian Banks Targeting 8%

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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<ul>
<li>HDFCB's balance sheet has been normalizing post the merger, allowing it to accelerate its growth trajectory. The demand and liquidity environment have also improved. </li>
<li>NIMs are likely to expand led by rate cut tailwind that will reflect fully over the next 18 months. Shift to CASA from term-deposits should further help. </li>
<li>Merger synergies are now being leveraged, especially for cross-selling and up-selling. At the current valuation, an investment in HDFCB offers 25%+ IRR over a holding period of two years.</li>
</ul>


HDFCB's balance sheet has been normalizing post the merger, allowing it to accelerate its growth trajectory. The demand and liquidity environment have also improved. 
NIMs are likely to expand led by rate cut tailwind that will reflect fully over the next 18 months. Shift to CASA from term-deposits should further help. 
Merger synergies are now being leveraged, especially for cross-selling and up-selling. At the current valuation, an investment in HDFCB offers 25%+ IRR over a holding period of two years.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Management Upbeat on Growth

<ul>
<li>Despite good earnings results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> does not seem to be going anywhere. The stock did rally for the past 3 weeks but after the earnings stayed flat.</li>
<li>Our quantitative probabilistic model indicates <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> usually does not rally for more than 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered (we are in the 4th week, this week). </li>
<li>From a price perspective, our model shows a mildly overbought stock, confirming the slow pace. The pullback should be short-lived (1-2 weeks), but it's imminent.</li>
</ul>


Despite good earnings results, HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) does not seem to be going anywhere. The stock did rally for the past 3 weeks but after the earnings stayed flat.
Our quantitative probabilistic model indicates HDFC Bank usually does not rally for more than 4 weeks when this pattern is encountered (we are in the 4th week, this week). 
From a price perspective, our model shows a mildly overbought stock, confirming the slow pace. The pullback should be short-lived (1-2 weeks), but it's imminent.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Tactical Outlook: Time to Lock In Gains

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
</li>
<li>
Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.</li>
<li>
Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC's earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.


Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.

Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC's earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)