Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.</li>
</ul>


There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

HDB Financial Services Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.</li>
<li>Track Record &amp; Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.</li>
<li>Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.</li>
</ul>


Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
Track Record &amp; Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.


HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

HDB Financial Services Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdb-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44072:1" rel="noopener">HDB Financial Services</a> is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.</li>
<li>HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO.
HDBFS is a leading retail-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of total gross loan book size, according to the CRISIL Report.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous note. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Despite ongoing military conflicts and a trade war, Asia ex Japan headline valuations are remarkably stable and robust. North Asia's and India's valuations and growth forecasts are healthier than ASEAN's</li>
<li>North Asia's and India's EPS growth and ROE profile are sturdier. Korea's, Taiwan's, China's and India's forecast EPS growth (2026E) are 15-17%. Conversely, Singapore's, Thailand's, Malaysia's and Philippines' are 4.5-8.5%.</li>
<li>Taiwan and India (15-15.5%) have highest forecast ROEs. Indonesia (13.9%), Philippines (12.6%), HK/China (10-11%) follows. All others have single digit forecast ROE. Our overweights on Korea, HK/CN, India seem justified.</li>
</ul>


Despite ongoing military conflicts and a trade war, Asia ex Japan headline valuations are remarkably stable and robust. North Asia's and India's valuations and growth forecasts are healthier than ASEAN's
North Asia's and India's EPS growth and ROE profile are sturdier. Korea's, Taiwan's, China's and India's forecast EPS growth (2026E) are 15-17%. Conversely, Singapore's, Thailand's, Malaysia's and Philippines' are 4.5-8.5%.
Taiwan and India (15-15.5%) have highest forecast ROEs. Indonesia (13.9%), Philippines (12.6%), HK/China (10-11%) follows. All others have single digit forecast ROE. Our overweights on Korea, HK/CN, India seem justified.


Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdb-financial-services-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44072:1" rel="noopener">HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN)</a> is India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). </li>
<li>The proposed IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs25 billion (US$388 million) and a secondary raise of  Rs100 billion (US$1.2 billion) by the parent. </li>
<li>The fundamentals are average at best, as HDB does not outperform its NBFC peers on key performance indicators. </li>
</ul>



HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). 
The proposed IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs25 billion (US$388 million) and a secondary raise of  Rs100 billion (US$1.2 billion) by the parent. 
The fundamentals are average at best, as HDB does not outperform its NBFC peers on key performance indicators. 


India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...

Rahul Jain

HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case

HDB Financial, India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC), is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). In this note, we...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close tomorrow. Since announcement, the adds have outperformed the deletes (but only marginally)....

Brian Freitas

HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery

​Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...

Rahul Jain

HDB Financial Services IPO - Parent Brand and Easing Macros Should See It Through

HDB Financial Services is looking to raise around US$1.5bn in its upcoming India IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.

Sumeet Singh

Asian Equities: Growth and ROE Driving Valuation Divergence; North Asia Pockets Robust, ASEAN Feeble

​Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case

HDB Financial, India's seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC), is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion). In this note, we...

Arun George

Upcoming ₹12,500 crore IPO for a company with strong growth potential, but caution advised due to high valuation and expectations. Proceeds to...

Despite conflicts & trade war, AxJ valn remain stable especially in HK/CN, KR, TW & IN. KR, TW, CN & IN have 15-17% f'cast EPS grth. SG, TH, MY,...