Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/time-to-buy-hdfc-bank-hdfcb-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Our insight in January 14th 2025</a> signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.</li>
<li>Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.</li>
</ul>



HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is one of those few stocks that were nearly unaffected by the recent market turmoil (-5.7% pullback, peak to bottom and now at new highs).

Our insight in January 14th 2025 signaled a strong buy opportunity, the stock rallied +13% from there.
Now the stock has reached its previous all time highs, and may become overbought. Long-term outlook remains positive, but a short-term pullback is possible in the next 2 weeks.


Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


-------------
Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Research Analyst Contact Details:
Address: A-412, Shilp Aaron, Sindhu Bhavan Road, Ahmedabad, Gujarat - 380059
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289

Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.</li>
<li>Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.</li>
<li>HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.</li>
</ul>


Deposit growth has been decent and exceeded loan growth, allowing HDFCB to bring down its credit-deposit ratio. Average deposits grew 15%+ YoY, while loans grew at 7%+ YoY in Q3FY25.
Despite tough macro environment, HDFCB was able to gain market share in deposits. Despite headwinds from tight liquidity leading to competitive pricing, HDFCB was able to maintain its NIM.
HDFCB is benefitting from its productivity and technology-led enhancements with costs growing at just 7% YoY. Despite weak macro-economic environment, HDFCB's asset quality has remained pristine, barring seasonality in Agri-loans.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.</li>
<li>Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.</li>
<li>Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.</li>
</ul>


Rapid decline in Asian inflation is opening up space for central banks to cut rates further. India's real policy rate is almost at record high and so's China's.
Fiscal space exists in economies with low public debt and low fiscal deficit - Korea, Indonesia, Thailand. China and India have implemented and articulated fiscal expansion intentions.
Monetary policy easing supports consumption/investments through lower cost of capital and drives funds into risk assets. In last twenty years, rate cut episodes in Asia unfailingly led to equity booms.


Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/international-gemmological-institute-india-limited-igi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43879:1" rel="noopener">IGI (India) Limited (IGIL IN)</a> (IGII) raised around US$500m in its India IPO in December 2024. The lockup on its PE shareholders is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



IGI (India) Limited (IGIL IN) (IGII) raised around US$500m in its India IPO in December 2024. The lockup on its PE shareholders is set to expire soon.
IGI India is part of the International Gemmological Institute (IGI) group. As of 22nd August 2024, IGI India handled operations of the IGI business in India and Türkiye.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


IGI IPO Lockup - US$900m Release with PE on 4x+ Gains

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Despite high competitive intensity, HDFCB has seen strong deposits growth. Its post-merger liquidity and credit-deposit metrics have come into...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Don’t fight the Fed. Fed’s 25 bps rate cut was called a “hawkish cut” by some economists, but Chair Powell’s comment, highlighting the possibility...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

IGI IPO Lockup - US$900m Release with PE on 4x+ Gains

IGI (India) Limited (IGIL IN) (IGII) raised around US$500m in its India IPO in December 2024. The lockup on its PE shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Time to Sell HDFC Bank? Stock Nears Record High and Slightly Overbought

​HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...

Nico Rosti

HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Robust Deposit Growth Despite Tough Environment

Despite high competitive intensity, HDFCB has seen strong deposits growth. Its post-merger liquidity and credit-deposit metrics have come into...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

There are 19 changes for the index in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are...

Brian Freitas

Nosediving Inflation, More Rate Cuts, Selective Fiscal Stimuli – Asian Equities to Gallop Along

Don’t fight the Fed. Fed’s 25 bps rate cut was called a “hawkish cut” by some economists, but Chair Powell’s comment, highlighting the possibility...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

IGI IPO Lockup - US$900m Release with PE on 4x+ Gains

IGI (India) Limited (IGIL IN) (IGII) raised around US$500m in its India IPO in December 2024. The lockup on its PE shareholders is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

HDFC Bank stock has remained resilient amid market turmoil, reaching previous all time highs on April 15, but the the odds for a short-term...