Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:<ul><li>Interest rate risk in the banking book</li><li>Prudential treatment of problem assets</li><li>Revisions to BIS III leverage ratio</li><li>Constraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightings</li><li>Pillar 3 disclosure requirements</li><li>Revisions to operational risk framework</li><li>Revised framework for market risk capital requirements</li><li>Identification and measurement of step-in risk</li></ul>Source: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow it will be hard to remember, let alone digest the many measures being implemented or considered. But these guidelines are critical to the development of banking, the outlook for profit, returns and capital raisings. We try to summarize the most salient measures coming out of BCBS over the period, and where applicable, bring into view how it can affect certain banks across Asia-Pacific or globally.Summary list of BCBS measures and guidelines over the past several months:Interest rate risk in the banking bookPrudential treatment of problem assetsRevisions to BIS III leverage ratioConstraints on use of internal modeling approach for risk-weightingsPillar 3 disclosure requirementsRevisions to operational risk frameworkRevised framework for market risk capital requirementsIdentification and measurement of step-in riskSource: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

Award-winning Financial Journalist

Ashish Saxena

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.<div style="text-align: justify;" class="content-highlight">In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran <a href="http://www.thequint.com/india/2016/03/19/even-as-farmers-die-trillions-laundered-as-agricultural-income" target="_blank">Vijay Sharma</a> in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.</div>That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a Right to Information (RTI) appeal filed by an Indian Revenue Service veteran Vijay Sharma in May last year, the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) has revealed that a relatively small group of Indians declared 'Agriculture Income' of almost USD 44.5 trillion between 2010 and 2012.That's right, USD 44.5 trillion! That's more than the combined nominal GDP…

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

Banking profits are under attack from FinTech Over the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their scale is now working against them. Nimbler financial technology (or “FinTech”) companies are eating into their market share. Banking profits in segments such as enterprise lending and wealth management will decline by up to 35% by 2025, according to McKinsey.Crowdfunding is the most potent FinTech threat.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking regulations is an environment of economic and financial fear. The decline in U.S. 10 year bond yields this year alone is testimony to this. Negative interest rates in Japan, EU, and Sweden, suggests the growth outlook is terrible.Remember when the world was waiting for rising U.S. rates and normalization of higher rates globally? This was when the world’s overly liquid banks would start to print money; earning an immediately higher spread on their excess deposits. It is not happening. It is more like the opposite now.

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country weightings.We provide more detail on each of these countries in the full version of this report, focusing on the economic, financial and structural governance issues that we believe will be the most important market drivers over the course of this year and beyond.

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)

Summary and Implications of Recent BIS Guidelines

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) has been busy over the past five months. For those not incredibly adept at managing BIS news flow...

Daniel Tabbush

India's USD 44.5 Trillion 'Agriculture Income' Puzzle: What It Means For The Economy

India's economics will never be like before if a recent stunning disclosure by the country's tax department is to be believed.In response to a...

Ashish Saxena

Crowdfunding as an Investment Theme

Banking profits are under attack from FinTechOver the next five years, banks will no longer enjoy the oligopolistic profits of the past. Their...

CM Research

Asian Banks – Risks Remain Plentiful

It is still difficult to digest the optimism in some commentary regarding true underlying financial health. Adding to the regime of onerous banking...

Daniel Tabbush

Governance, Valuations and the Crisis of State Capitalism

In January’s ‘Government and Markets’ report, we used the themes in the 2016 GEM overview and China outlooks to introduce our intra-GEM country...

John-Paul Smith

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