European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.</li>
<li>Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.</li>
</ul>


Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

China Resources Beer Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-holding-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21118:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)</a> ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.</li>
<li>CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it's performance has drawn little market attention, yet.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a>  trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.</li>
</ul>



Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA) ’s US$3.2bn acquisition of beer, soft drinks, and retail assets in Central America at 11.6x EV/EBITDA highlights the valuation gap with Asian Beer Companies.
CR Beer’s strong 1H2025 recovery in sales and margins were powered by innovative product launches and digital channel sales. However it's performance has drawn little market attention, yet.

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)  trades near 10-year low EV/EBITDA, even as consensus expects solid margins and steady revenue growth ahead. Expect a valuation upside.


Heineken's USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but revises 2H25 guidance • Heineken | strengthening its position in Central America with FIFCO deal</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but revises 2H25 guidance • Heineken | strengthening its position in Central America with FIFCO deal

What's News in Amsterdam - 23 September 2025 (ABN Amro | ASM International | Heineken)

International Distributions Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer by 15% • Corbion | to cooperate with BRAIN Biotech developing novel biobased antimicrobial compounds • JDE Peet’s | agrees on takeover offer of EUR 31.85 per share in cash by Keurig Dr Pepper • PostNL | Royal Mail’s delivery quality still falls short of minimum required targets • Dutch politics | NSC cabinet members have resigned as well; risk of political deadlock • Corporate agenda | week 35 - 39</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer by 15% • Corbion | to cooperate with BRAIN Biotech developing novel biobased antimicrobial compounds • JDE Peet’s | agrees on takeover offer of EUR 31.85 per share in cash by Keurig Dr Pepper • PostNL | Royal Mail’s delivery quality still falls short of minimum required targets • Dutch politics | NSC cabinet members have resigned as well; risk of political deadlock • Corporate agenda | week 35 - 39

International Distributions Services PLC - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.</li>
</ul>


GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Heineken's USD3.2 Bn Acqsn. Frothy Valuations. Why Are Asia’s Beer Champions Still Flat?

CR Beer’s strong 1H2025, driven by new products and digital growth, merits market attention. Heineken’s premium Central America deal may shift the...

Devi Subhakesan

What's News in Amsterdam - 23 September 2025 (ABN Amro | ASM International | Heineken)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but...

The IDEA!

International Distributions Services PLC - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

GBL’s discount is tightening, Rio Tinto’s dual listing offers DLC convergence upside, and Vivendi’s forced bid reshapes stub trade dynamics—three...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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