European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos didn't follow a clear trend during February 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 14.1% (vs. 12.9% as of 31 January 2025); GBL, 38.7% (vs. 40%);
Heineken Holding, 13% (vs. 13.2%); Industrivärden C, 5.1% (vs. 3.0%); Investor B, 2.3% (vs. 4.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 38.1% (vs. 36%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 17% (vs. 20.3%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.</li>
<li>We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.</li>
<li>We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. </li>
</ul>


In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results and with NII in particular.
We feel that the FY25 NII guidance has been adequately substantiated in the FY25 results presentation slides.
We were also pleased wit the development in costs on an underlying basis. We feel that management’s guidance of flattish costs (excl. one-offs) is based on a clear foundation. 


Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | strong finish of the year in income; costs inflated by incidentals • Ahold Delhaize | strong performance Europe, US disappoints; outlook no surprises • Heineken | clear beat of market expectations; EUR 1.5bn share buyback • Randstad | challenging trading conditions resulting in additional write-downs, impairments and integration costs – proposes its floor dividend • Shell | Milieudefensie turns to Dutch Supreme Court in climate case</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | strong finish of the year in income; costs inflated by incidentals • Ahold Delhaize | strong performance Europe, US disappoints; outlook no surprises • Heineken | clear beat of market expectations; EUR 1.5bn share buyback • Randstad | challenging trading conditions resulting in additional write-downs, impairments and integration costs – proposes its floor dividend • Shell | Milieudefensie turns to Dutch Supreme Court in climate case

Randstad Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);</li>
<li>Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).</li>
</ul>


Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 12.9% (vs. 11.8% as of 31 December 2024); GBL, 40% (vs. 40.9%);
Heineken Holding, 13.2% (vs. 15.8%); Industrivärden C, 3.0% (vs. 5.5%); Investor B, 4.5% (vs. 7.6%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 36% (vs. 32.2%). Rio DLC spread tightened to 20.3% (vs. 23%).
What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

<ul><li>In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY</li></ul>

In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas | ups FY24 guidance • bpostgroup | bpost offers packaging and label-free (L2L) shipping • Triodos Bank | offers a package of measures to its depository receipts (“DR”) holders • Dutch housing market | more homes sold in FY24; average transaction price up 11.5% YoY

Netherlands

Heineken Holding NV, through its subsidiary produces and distributes beverages internationally.  The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names. Heineken operates through numerous subsidiaries and associated companies worldwide.

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Heineken Holding NV (HEIO NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results...

The IDEA!

Randstad Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | strong finish of the year in income; costs inflated by incidentals • Ahold Delhaize | strong performance Europe, US...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)

In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas...

The IDEA!

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: February 2025 Report

​February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In yesterday’s initial comment, we already zoomed in on the bank’s 4Q24 and FY24 results. On an overall, basis, we were pleased with the results...

The IDEA!

Randstad Holding NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ABN Amro | strong finish of the year in income; costs inflated by incidentals • Ahold Delhaize | strong performance Europe, US...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: January 2025 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly tightened during January 2025. What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 10 January (Heineken | NN Group | Havas | bpostgroup | Triodos Bank | Dutch housing market)

In today's edition: • Heineken | stops selling beer in the Indian state of Telangana • NN Group | completes sale of its Turkish operations • Havas...

The IDEA!

February 2025 saw varying discounts to NAV for covered holdcos, with some tightening and others widening, highlighting opportunities in Porsche SE...