European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.</li>
<li>Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.</li>
</ul>


Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but revises 2H25 guidance • Heineken | strengthening its position in Central America with FIFCO deal</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but revises 2H25 guidance • Heineken | strengthening its position in Central America with FIFCO deal

What's News in Amsterdam - 23 September 2025 (ABN Amro | ASM International | Heineken)

International Distribution Services / Equity Bottom-Up

International Distribution Services (IDS LN)

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer by 15% • Corbion | to cooperate with BRAIN Biotech developing novel biobased antimicrobial compounds • JDE Peet’s | agrees on takeover offer of EUR 31.85 per share in cash by Keurig Dr Pepper • PostNL | Royal Mail’s delivery quality still falls short of minimum required targets • Dutch politics | NSC cabinet members have resigned as well; risk of political deadlock • Corporate agenda | week 35 - 39</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer by 15% • Corbion | to cooperate with BRAIN Biotech developing novel biobased antimicrobial compounds • JDE Peet’s | agrees on takeover offer of EUR 31.85 per share in cash by Keurig Dr Pepper • PostNL | Royal Mail’s delivery quality still falls short of minimum required targets • Dutch politics | NSC cabinet members have resigned as well; risk of political deadlock • Corporate agenda | week 35 - 39

International Distributions Services PLC - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul>
<li>GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.</li>
<li>Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.</li>
<li>Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.</li>
</ul>


GBL’s discount to NAV is compressing but remains wide versus peers — buybacks, portfolio moves, and dividends hint at a valuation shift.
Rio Tinto’s Australia-UK dual listing still trades at a premium — mean reversion potential remains as unification chatter simmers beneath the surface.
Vivendi’s looming mandatory offer from Bolloré reshapes stub trade dynamics — a narrowing discount points to accelerating corporate resolution.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

<ul><li>In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the ANH unit • Heineken | operating profit (beia) shows beat thanks to more costs savings and mix effects • KPN | EUR 250m share buyback completed • Corporate agenda | week 31 – 36</li></ul>

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the ANH unit • Heineken | operating profit (beia) shows beat thanks to more costs savings and mix effects • KPN | EUR 250m share buyback completed • Corporate agenda | week 31 – 36

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (ABN Amro | dsm-firmenich | Heineken | KPN | Corporate calendar)

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 23 September 2025 (ABN Amro | ASM International | Heineken)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Bloomberg cites rumours on potential interest from KBC • ASM International | provides new targets for 2030 but...

The IDEA!

International Distributions Services PLC - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | Cevian declares an approx. 3% holding in the company • Heineken | Poland intends to increase excise duty on beer...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: July 2025 Report

GBL’s discount is tightening, Rio Tinto’s dual listing offers DLC convergence upside, and Vivendi’s forced bid reshapes stub trade dynamics—three...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

What's News in Amsterdam - 28 July (ABN Amro | dsm-firmenich | Heineken | KPN | Corporate calendar)

In this edition: • ABN Amro | Dutch state’s stake drops below one-third • dsm-firmenich | banks prepared to provide more debt to the buyer of the...

The IDEA!

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