Independent Investment Research, The IDEA!

The IDEA!

Independent Investment Research

The Idea-Driven Equities Analyses company (the IDEA!) is an employee-owned boutique providing independent investment research and financial consultancy services with a clear focus on the Benelux countries. The company was founded in the summer of 2007 by Henk Slotboom and Maarten Verbeek, both with more than 35 years of professional experience in the financial sector. The IDEA! differentiates itself by focusing on adding value through self-initiated in-depth, idea-driven investment research, as well as by bespoke research assignments for institutional investors, hedge funds and private equity. In addition, we provide market intelligence, strategic research and – together with our business partners – consultancy services to businesses. In case you are interested in receiving more information, a sample of our products or an introductory meeting, please send a message to info@theidea.nl.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case?</li><li>• BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new EUR 60m share buyback program • Heineken | presents new medium term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • RELX Group | 9M25 trading update shows no surprises (as it should be) • Aalberts | foresees FY25 EBITA-margin of 13%, 50bps below market consensus • Kendrion | completes sale of its China business</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case?• BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new EUR 60m share buyback program • Heineken | presents new medium term strategy and targets at today’s CMD • RELX Group | 9M25 trading update shows no surprises (as it should be) • Aalberts | foresees FY25 EBITA-margin of 13%, 50bps below market consensus • Kendrion | completes sale of its China business

<ul><li>In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM</li></ul>

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the board • Randstad | organic revenue per working remains negative and lags its US peer • Unilever | spin-off ice cream unit delayed because of US shutdown • TKH Group | completed divestment of Dewetron • Nexperia | warns customers not to buy chips from its Chinese branch • Dutch politics | EenVandaag poll: Bontenbal most trusted candidate PM

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters; additional reduction 400 jobs • InPost | Royal Mail plans to double its UK parcel points by 2030 • Shell | FID on Nigerian offshore gas project • bpostgroup | launches a new B2B proposition: Night Delivery • Nexperia | more information on what led to this week’s events</li></ul>

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters; additional reduction 400 jobs • InPost | Royal Mail plans to double its UK parcel points by 2030 • Shell | FID on Nigerian offshore gas project • bpostgroup | launches a new B2B proposition: Night Delivery • Nexperia | more information on what led to this week’s events

NXP Semiconductors NV - What's News in Amsterdam

<ul><li>In this edition: • Heineken | FIFCO’s shareholders approve sale the deal with Heineken • ING | warns for factors adversely impacting its CET1 ratio and operational challenges • Shell | pre-earnings update not as bad as expected • bpostgroup / PostNL | Amazon pledges to invest EUR 1bn in Belgium in the next 2 years</li></ul>

In this edition: • Heineken | FIFCO’s shareholders approve sale the deal with Heineken • ING | warns for factors adversely impacting its CET1 ratio and operational challenges • Shell | pre-earnings update not as bad as expected • bpostgroup / PostNL | Amazon pledges to invest EUR 1bn in Belgium in the next 2 years

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 October (Heineken | ING | Shell | bpostgroup / PostNL)

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.</li>
<li>Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.</li>
<li>Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.</li>
</ul>


Holdco discounts tightened in September: GBL to 28.1%, Industrivärden C to 6.9%, Investor B to 10.9%, Heineken Holding to 12.1%; Porsche SE widened to 31.6%; Rio Tinto DLC premium 21.6%.
Drivers: discounts compress with buybacks and bull markets. GBL cancelling repurchases; target sub-25% discount. Heineken Holding’s control structure sustains a spread. Swedish holdcos are investment-grade, high-quality, with low look-through discounts.
Catalysts: Vivendi’s AMF-driven mandatory-offer path, appeals pending, base-case €4.15 bid. Rio Tinto DLC unification could unlock $27–32B despite May vote. Porsche SE discount reflects deleveraging priority; legal overhang increasingly immaterial.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Netherlands

Heineken NV produces and distributes beverages internationally. The Company produces beers, spirits, wines, and soft drinks under various brand names.

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Heineken NV (HEIA NA)

What's New(s) in Amsterdam - 23 October (AkzoNobel | Besi | Heineken | RELX | Aalberts | Kendrion)

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | a Janus-faced case? • BE Semiconductor Industries | as forecasted, order intake improved strongly; launches new...

The IDEA!

Randstad Holding NV - What's New(s) in Amsterdam

In this edition: • AkzoNobel | 3Q25 results hit by FX headwind; EUR 300m charge for Project Ichtys • Heineken | 3Q25 volumes disappoint across the...

The IDEA!

NXP Semiconductors NV - What's News in Amsterdam

In this edition: • ASML Holding | reiterates FY25 outlook – expects revenue growth in 2026 • Heineken | to transform its Amsterdam headquarters;...

The IDEA!

What's News in Amsterdam - 8 October (Heineken | ING | Shell | bpostgroup / PostNL)

In this edition: • Heineken | FIFCO’s shareholders approve sale the deal with Heineken • ING | warns for factors adversely impacting its CET1...

The IDEA!

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: September 2025 Report

Holdco discounts tightened in Sept. GBL buybacks aid narrowing; Swedish names near lows; HEIO spread persists. Optionality: Vivendi OPA, Rio Tinto...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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