Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Nitori+ isn’t on the radar of most apparel retail competitors because they think a furniture retailer can’t sell apparel. But, as Nitori’s 18th N+ store attests, the home furnishings retailer may have struck gold with its chain for women over 40 thanks to a mix of disciplined supply chains, simple designs and low prices – and the fact that this age group is one of the few to grow in the next decade. We expect to see around 150 stores open within the next two years.</p>

Nitori+ isn’t on the radar of most apparel retail competitors because they think a furniture retailer can’t sell apparel. But, as Nitori’s 18th N+ store attests, the home furnishings retailer may have struck gold with its chain for women over 40 thanks to a mix of disciplined supply chains, simple designs and low prices – and the fact that this age group is one of the few to grow in the next decade. We expect to see around 150 stores open within the next two years.

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. </p>

Monthly sales data for GMS chains and department store branches was withheld last year as companies were reluctant to reveal just how bad things were. For most GMS chains, however, it turns out CY2020 was a great year and for food supermarkets, the shift to buying more fresh food could endure beyond the pandemic. Department stores did poorly but there were some striking differences in performance between stores. 

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •</strong></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/828/original/2021-04-03_06-36-35.png?1617567965" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198828"></figure></section><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwado-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11411:1" rel="noopener">Heiwado (8276 JP)</a> continues to see a recovery in margins, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nachi-fujikoshi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9817:1" rel="noopener">Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP)</a> struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-pool-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7878:1" rel="noopener">S Pool (2471 JP)</a>.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/830/original/image_44290506921617568328843.png?1617568330" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198830"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/831/original/image_57651559131617568365442.png?1617568366" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198831"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/832/original/image_4237424241617568389958.png?1617568391" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198832"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL •</strong> </p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/833/original/2021-04-03_06-37-00.png?1617568432" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198833"></figure></section><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the <strong>DETAIL</strong> section below.</p>
</div>


• RESULTS - 2nd APRIL •
RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins, while Nachi Fujikoshi (6474 JP) struggles. Earnings momentum is now slowing at the overvalued and Overbought staffing agency S Pool (2471 JP).
• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 2nd APRIL • 
FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Heiwado also announced positive interim and annual forecasts for the current fiscal year - for more, see the DETAIL section below.


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a> and Toyota parts supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisan-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16945:1" rel="noopener">Aisan Industry (7283 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/343/original/2020-09-29_05-51-10.png?1601326304" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162343"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/344/original/2020-09-29_05-52-10.png?1601326345" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162344"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>9 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +3.4 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.8ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 33%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -2.7 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair from Friday's announcements is retailer Shimamura (8227 JP) and Toyota parts supplier Aisan Industry (7283 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
9 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.4 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.4% Quarter YoY / -10.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.8ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 33%
11 Annual • 9 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 36% Positive / 0% Neutral / 64% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 44% Positive / 0% Neutral / 56% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -2.7 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Japan

HEIWADO CO., LTD. operates supermarkets mainly in Shiga Prefecture.  The Company also operates restaurants, real estate, bowling alleys, and convenience stores.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Heiwado Co Ltd (8276 JP)

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

Some worry that Nitori is reaching saturation in the Japanese home market but, as well as more growth in that area including through category...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

N+ Nitori: Fashion the New Frontier for the Japanese Giant

Some worry that Nitori is reaching saturation in the Japanese home market but, as well as more growth in that area including through category...

Michael Causton

Department Stores and GMS: A Bit Better than Expected in CY2020

A review of the 2020 performance of Japanese GMS chains and department stores. There is more growth for food-based GMS retailers but department...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - ​​​​​​​​Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

RESULTS - Only six of Friday's thirteen results scored positively. Of the larger caps, Heiwado (8276 JP) continues to see a recovery in margins,...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/02 - Heiwado, Nachi-Fujikoshi, S-Pool

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/28 - Shimamura, On Yer [Asahi] Bike!, Heiwado, Stanley & Aisan