Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul class="">
<li>The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one, with both consumption upgrade and downgrade going on across different categories and segments;</li>
<li>In the meantime, we see the consumer space as being a decent source for high-quality, relatively predictable Chinese companies;</li>
<li>To enjoy the long-term tailwind of consumption upgrade, investors may need to look for superior returns on capital, signs of an economic moat, stable market-share leaders/gainers, and solid structural trends.</li>
<li>We list our quick picks (three domestic and three overseas) that are hopeful of keeping delighting Chinese consumers in the long run.</li>
</ul>


The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one, with both consumption upgrade and downgrade going on across different categories and segments;
In the meantime, we see the consumer space as being a decent source for high-quality, relatively predictable Chinese companies;
To enjoy the long-term tailwind of consumption upgrade, investors may need to look for superior returns on capital, signs of an economic moat, stable market-share leaders/gainers, and solid structural trends.
We list our quick picks (three domestic and three overseas) that are hopeful of keeping delighting Chinese consumers in the long run.


Quick Picks that Are Hopeful of Keeping Delighting Chinese Consumers

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view remains unchanged; overhead longer-term resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. In today's report we highlight attractive charts within defensives (Consumer Staples &amp; Utilities), cyclicals (Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financial, &amp; Materials), and in-between Sectors (Communications, Services, &amp; Health Care)

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view remains unchanged; overhead longer-term resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. In today's report we highlight attractive charts within defensives (Consumer Staples &amp; Utilities), cyclicals (Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financial, &amp; Materials), and in-between Sectors (Communications, Services, &amp; Health Care)

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Technology

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two weeks. Overhead resistance on the MSCI EM, EAFE, and ACWI ex-US indexes (all priced in local currency) is something to be aware of, however if the ACWI-US is above $70 our bullish outlook remains appropriate.  In today's report we highlight attractive charts in both defensive and cyclical Sectors. On the semi-defensive side, Sectors covered include Health Care and Services. On the cyclical side, Sectors covered include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Transportation

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been recommending adding exposure to cyclical Sectors and, despite them getting near-term extended, we believe these upside moves are likely just getting going. Additionally, the US dollar is breaking below support and EM equities are breaking above resistance, only adding to our bullish outlook on global equities. We highlight actionable set-ups within the Consumer Discretionary, Global Real Estate and Utilities Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE / Technical Analysis

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend. Helping lead the turnaround is the Personal &amp; Household Goods supersector. We believe outperformance is set to continue and several stocks are actionable at current levels within our int’l Group CD-28 Apparel, Accessory &amp; Luxury Goods, Europe: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC-FR), Christian Dior SE (CDI-FR), Kering SA (KER-FR), Hermes International SCA (RMS-FR), adidas AG (ADS-DE), Moncler SpA (MONC-IT), PUMA SE (PUM-DE), and Bjorn Borg AB (BORG-SE). Add exposure.

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend. Helping lead the turnaround is the Personal &amp; Household Goods supersector. We believe outperformance is set to continue and several stocks are actionable at current levels within our int’l Group CD-28 Apparel, Accessory &amp; Luxury Goods, Europe: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC-FR), Christian Dior SE (CDI-FR), Kering SA (KER-FR), Hermes International SCA (RMS-FR), adidas AG (ADS-DE), Moncler SpA (MONC-IT), PUMA SE (PUM-DE), and Bjorn Borg AB (BORG-SE). Add exposure.

European Apparel, Accessory & Luxury Goods Stocks Are Heating Up -- Add Exposure

France

Hermes International designs, produces, and distributes personal luxury accessories and apparel.  The Company operates a chain of boutiques under the Hermes name that sells items such as leather, scarves, men's clothes, ties, women's fashions, perfume, watches, stationery, shoes, hats, gloves, and jewelry.

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Hermes International (RMS FP)

Quick Picks that Are Hopeful of Keeping Delighting Chinese Consumers

The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one in recent years, with two totally opposing trends (of both consumption upgrade and...

Urbem Capital

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Technology

Global indexes remain overwhelmingly positive which is supported by the fact that there is a dearth of breakdowns. Overall our big picture view...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Short-Term Bullish Trends Clash With Longer-Term Resistance

For now we view the recent pullback as a countertrend move that helped correct the extended and overbought conditions we noted over the past two...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Still Bullish, But Extended Near-Term

Global equities continue to trend higher following breakouts that have occurred during the past two weeks. Over this timeframe we have been...

Vermilion Research

European Apparel, Accessory & Luxury Goods Stocks Are Heating Up -- Add Exposure

We continue to believe that equities in Europe and the UK are bottoming with the STOXX Europe 600 index breaking topside its 14-month downtrend....

Vermilion Research

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