Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.</li>
<li>Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.</li>
<li>The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.</li>
</ul>



Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)  is undergoing a course correction, acknowledging its past mistakes.
Multiple levers on the horizon arguing for a change of stance on HMCL.
The stock is reasonably valued, and institutional holdings are at a 12-quarter low, signaling the need for attention.


Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Course Correction

<ul>
<li>Strong demand for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> 's Royal Enfield bikes with returning customers.</li>
<li>The model "Hunter" is expanding the market and attracting a new set of customers.</li>
<li>Royal Enfield entering a new growth phase with new launches and customer service focus.</li>
</ul>


Strong demand for Eicher Motors (EIM IN) 's Royal Enfield bikes with returning customers.
The model "Hunter" is expanding the market and attracting a new set of customers.
Royal Enfield entering a new growth phase with new launches and customer service focus.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mankind-pharma-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36389:1" rel="noopener">Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN)</a> is looking to raise up to US$526m in its IPO by selling 40.06m shares at a price range of INR 1026 to INR 1080 per share.</li>
<li>The company has allocated 12.02m shares to anchor investors at INR 1080/share. That list includes marquee names and the lock-up reduces near-term float.</li>
<li>The IPO opens on 25 April and will close on 27 April. Shares are expected to start trading on 9 May and there are no near-term index inclusions expected.</li>
</ul>



Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$526m in its IPO by selling 40.06m shares at a price range of INR 1026 to INR 1080 per share.
The company has allocated 12.02m shares to anchor investors at INR 1080/share. That list includes marquee names and the lock-up reduces near-term float.
The IPO opens on 25 April and will close on 27 April. Shares are expected to start trading on 9 May and there are no near-term index inclusions expected.


Mankind Pharma: IPO Details & Index Inclusion

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larsen-toubro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2499:1" rel="noopener">Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


With only 5 trading days to go in the review period, we see no constituent changes to the NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) at the March rebalance.

Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest ranked non-index constituent, but its free float market cap does not exceed 1.5x the free-float market cap of Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN). 
We do not expect LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) to be added to the index in March post the merger between Larsen &amp; Toubro (LT IN) and Mindtree Ltd (MTCL IN). 


NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: No Changes Likely in March

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>With roughly a week left in the reference period, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>For NIFTY 50, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest-ranked Potential ADD while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is the highest-ranked Potential DELETE according to our estimates.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the recent price performance of names that can potentially be involved in index changes and our flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


With roughly a week left in the reference period, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
For NIFTY 50, Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest-ranked Potential ADD while Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is the highest-ranked Potential DELETE according to our estimates.
In this insight, we take a look at the recent price performance of names that can potentially be involved in index changes and our flow expectations.


Quiddity Final Expectations for NIFTY Mar 23: Pidilite Could Be an Interesting Pre-Event Bet

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)