Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle.

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle. 

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>About India Channel Insight</h2>
We are pleased to introduce "India Channel Insight" as a successor to India Consumer &amp; Internet Weekly. Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process.
These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this insight, we interact with a senior consultant to get a perspective on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> new acquisition, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> 's new launch is getting a tepid response, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> 's EV dreams still have a far way to go.

About India Channel Insight
We are pleased to introduce "India Channel Insight" as a successor to India Consumer &amp; Internet Weekly. Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process.
These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this insight, we interact with a senior consultant to get a perspective on Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) new acquisition, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) 's new launch is getting a tepid response, Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) 's EV dreams still have a far way to go. 

India Channel Insight | Wipro, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp

In this insight we present key takeaways from our interaction with a Hero Motocorp sales manager based in southern India with more than 20 years of experience. Having been in the industry for two decades, he possesses a thorough, in depth knowledge of the two wheeler industry in India and its competitive factors.

In this insight we present key takeaways from our interaction with a Hero Motocorp sales manager based in southern India with more than 20 years of experience. Having been in the industry for two decades, he possesses a thorough, in depth knowledge of the two wheeler industry in India and its competitive factors. 

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) | Channel Interactions Point to a Wide Disconnect

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> announced its Q3FY21 earnings yesterday. It reported highest ever quarterly revenue. Key positive surprises were market share gain in the export market (90bp gain) and 25%+ growth in the spare parts business. Hero Motocorp also did well in the domestic market with 190bp market share gain. This coupled with low base effect helped Hero Motocorp post strong earnings. Revenues grew 40% YoY, EBITDA grew 36% YoY while PAT grew 23% YoY (losses at couple of associates tapered down the PAT growth). EBITDA margins at 14.5% came in within the medium-term guidance of 14-16% range.

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) announced its Q3FY21 earnings yesterday. It reported highest ever quarterly revenue. Key positive surprises were market share gain in the export market (90bp gain) and 25%+ growth in the spare parts business. Hero Motocorp also did well in the domestic market with 190bp market share gain. This coupled with low base effect helped Hero Motocorp post strong earnings. Revenues grew 40% YoY, EBITDA grew 36% YoY while PAT grew 23% YoY (losses at couple of associates tapered down the PAT growth). EBITDA margins at 14.5% came in within the medium-term guidance of 14-16% range.

Hero Motocorp Q3FY21 Earnings - Highest Ever Quarterly Revenue

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

In our earlier extensive insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mahindra-and-mahindra-deceleration-accelerates-plateau-ahead" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15530" rel="noopener">Mahindra and Mahindra: Deceleration Accelerates, Plateau Ahead</a> we spoke about how <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> had lost its mojo in the Indian auto industry, after having a purple patch till early 2010s. We highlighted severe operational, strategic and financial concerns that plagued the company, and that it will continue to underperform the Auto sector post 2017.
M&amp;M has struggled to cope up with its historic prowess in the sector, and has been a victim to market share and momentum loss in several segments (Standalone basis). 
The company has also announced a reshuffle of its leadership back in Dec 2019, and consequently has undergone several strategic business changes ranging from exit of investments to new tie ups. As a result, there has been a lot of optimism in the market about a more than average possibility of a revival, and that M&amp;M will regain the fortress back.
However on the contrary, looking at the dismal recent-past track record of the company, it is a herculean task for the management to turn around and so these decisions must be watched closely in the medium to long run before jumping on to the conclusions.

In our earlier extensive insight, Mahindra and Mahindra: Deceleration Accelerates, Plateau Ahead we spoke about how Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) had lost its mojo in the Indian auto industry, after having a purple patch till early 2010s. We highlighted severe operational, strategic and financial concerns that plagued the company, and that it will continue to underperform the Auto sector post 2017.
M&amp;M has struggled to cope up with its historic prowess in the sector, and has been a victim to market share and momentum loss in several segments (Standalone basis). 
The company has also announced a reshuffle of its leadership back in Dec 2019, and consequently has undergone several strategic business changes ranging from exit of investments to new tie ups. As a result, there has been a lot of optimism in the market about a more than average possibility of a revival, and that M&amp;M will regain the fortress back.
However on the contrary, looking at the dismal recent-past track record of the company, it is a herculean task for the management to turn around and so these decisions must be watched closely in the medium to long run before jumping on to the conclusions.

Mahindra and Mahindra: Refurbished but Still Fragile

India

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharastra, the situation is no better in the rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight | Wipro, Tata Motors, Hero Motocorp

Our objective with India Channel Weekly is to share snippets from our regular channel interactions which can potentially be signals for larger...

Pranav Bhavsar