Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.</li>
<li>It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).</li>
</ul>


Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
Japan's TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int'l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).


Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Project Lakshya targets Rs. 20,000 crore revenue and more than 27% EBITDA margin by FY29, supported by 50% capacity expansion.</li>
<li>The plan implies a 61.6% revenue CAGR from FY26 and at least Rs. 5,400 crore of FY29 EBITDA, an earnings reset, if delivered.</li>
<li>The debate shifts from cyclical fibre recovery to execution, product mix, customer concentration, capex discipline and order conversion.</li>
</ul>


Project Lakshya targets Rs. 20,000 crore revenue and more than 27% EBITDA margin by FY29, supported by 50% capacity expansion.
The plan implies a 61.6% revenue CAGR from FY26 and at least Rs. 5,400 crore of FY29 EBITDA, an earnings reset, if delivered.
The debate shifts from cyclical fibre recovery to execution, product mix, customer concentration, capex discipline and order conversion.


Sterlite Technologies: Project Lakshya Raises The Stakes

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hyundai Motor India files for India's largest IPO, faces supply chain risks</li>
<li>Vedanta's growth initiatives aim to boost EBITDA to $10 billion</li>
<li>HFCL, India's only firm exempt from European optical fiber anti-dumping duties</li>
</ul>


Hyundai Motor India files for India's largest IPO, faces supply chain risks
Vedanta's growth initiatives aim to boost EBITDA to $10 billion
HFCL, India's only firm exempt from European optical fiber anti-dumping duties


#16 India Insight: Hyundai IPO, Vedanta Growth, HFCL Exemption

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY26 revenue fell to Rs.1,103 crore from Rs.8,923 crore in FY25, with a full-year net loss of Rs.909 crore as the BSNL 4G supply cycle wound down.</li>
<li>The order book climbed 49% YoY to Rs. 1,514 crore, but Rs. 3,531 crore of net debt means execution speed, not order wins, now decides solvency.</li>
<li>Wireless exports and BharatNet routers are the two levers management is pulling: whether they scale fast enough is the thesis worth stress-testing.</li>
</ul>


FY26 revenue fell to Rs.1,103 crore from Rs.8,923 crore in FY25, with a full-year net loss of Rs.909 crore as the BSNL 4G supply cycle wound down.
The order book climbed 49% YoY to Rs. 1,514 crore, but Rs. 3,531 crore of net debt means execution speed, not order wins, now decides solvency.
Wireless exports and BharatNet routers are the two levers management is pulling: whether they scale fast enough is the thesis worth stress-testing.


Tejas Networks: Tata Group's Research Company, Beyond Bharatnet!

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Jio Platforms has filed its DRHP for a fresh issue of up to 270 million shares, with no offer-for-sale in the initial filing.</li>
<li>Jio Platforms’ IPO papers have put number on Mahendra Nahata’s long-running Reliance association. His family owns 0.536% in Jio-Platforms by investing INR 48Crs which is now valued at ~INR 5,800Crs.</li>
<li>The governance question is simple: did the 2020 low-cost share conversion merely recognise legacy rights, or did it transfer significant value to an old ally just before global investors entered?</li>
</ul>


Jio Platforms has filed its DRHP for a fresh issue of up to 270 million shares, with no offer-for-sale in the initial filing.
Jio Platforms’ IPO papers have put number on Mahendra Nahata’s long-running Reliance association. His family owns 0.536% in Jio-Platforms by investing INR 48Crs which is now valued at ~INR 5,800Crs.
The governance question is simple: did the 2020 low-cost share conversion merely recognise legacy rights, or did it transfer significant value to an old ally just before global investors entered?


Jio Platform Governance: How HFCL Promoter Made 5800Crs?

India

HFCL Ltd provides telecommunication infrastructure construction services. The Company offers optical fiber cables, microwave radios, battery management, and solar solutions. HFCL serves customers in India.

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HFCL Ltd (HMFC IN)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Sterlite Technologies: Project Lakshya Raises The Stakes

A fourfold FY29 revenue ambition is backed by a record order book and an AI-connectivity upcycle but the 27% margin target demands a business-mix...

Nimish Maheshwari

#16 India Insight: Hyundai IPO, Vedanta Growth, HFCL Exemption

Hyundai Motor India files for largest IPO in India, Vedanta aims to boost EBITDA to $10 billion, HFCL exempt from European optical fiber anti...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Tejas Networks: Tata Group's Research Company, Beyond Bharatnet!

BSNL's FY26 revenue plummeted due to 4G supply cycle end, with net loss of Rs.909 crore. Order book up, but high debt means execution speed...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jio Platform Governance: How HFCL Promoter Made 5800Crs?

Jio Platforms files for IPO with up to 270 million shares, raising questions about legacy rights and value transfer to long-time ally Nahata.

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives (Health Care, Telecommunications, Utilities, and Consumer Staples); Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral...

Vermilion Research

Sterlite Technologies: Project Lakshya Raises The Stakes

A fourfold FY29 revenue ambition is backed by a record order book and an AI-connectivity upcycle but the 27% margin target demands a business-mix...

Nimish Maheshwari

#16 India Insight: Hyundai IPO, Vedanta Growth, HFCL Exemption

​Hyundai Motor India files for largest IPO in India, Vedanta aims to boost EBITDA to $10 billion, HFCL exempt from European optical fiber anti...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Tejas Networks: Tata Group's Research Company, Beyond Bharatnet!

​BSNL's FY26 revenue plummeted due to 4G supply cycle end, with net loss of Rs.909 crore. Order book up, but high debt means execution speed...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jio Platform Governance: How HFCL Promoter Made 5800Crs?

​Jio Platforms files for IPO with up to 270 million shares, raising questions about legacy rights and value transfer to long-time ally Nahata.

Nimish Maheshwari

Hyundai Motor India files for largest IPO in India, Vedanta aims to boost EBITDA to $10 billion, HFCL exempt from European optical fiber anti...

BSNL's FY26 revenue plummeted due to 4G supply cycle end, with net loss of Rs.909 crore. Order book up, but high debt means execution speed...

Jio Platforms files for IPO with up to 270 million shares, raising questions about legacy rights and value transfer to long-time ally Nahata.