Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

The MSCI EM index continues to develop positively from a price perspective and we expect higher prices ahead. China remains leadership -- overweight. At the same time we recommend selectivity in new purchases considering many Chinese equities are extended. In this report we highlight a number of attractive stocks from Chines markets as well as opportunities within Greece, South Africa, India, and Taiwan.

The MSCI EM index continues to develop positively from a price perspective and we expect higher prices ahead. China remains leadership -- overweight. At the same time we recommend selectivity in new purchases considering many Chinese equities are extended. In this report we highlight a number of attractive stocks from Chines markets as well as opportunities within Greece, South Africa, India, and Taiwan.

EM Equity Strategy: Remain Overweight China

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Lianlian DigiTech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has begun pre-marketing an HKEx IPO. It previously targeted a US$500 million raise.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108793" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:109009" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has begun pre-marketing an HKEx IPO. It previously targeted a US$500 million raise.
We previously discussed the IPO in LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case and LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case. 
The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lianlian-digitech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108793" rel="noopener">LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.  
In LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, FCF burn with a weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lianlian-digitech" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39940:1" rel="noopener">Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH)</a>, a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>Lianlian ranked first among the independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing additional revenue streams.</li>
</ul>



Lianlian DigiTech (2104619D CH), a digital payment services provider in China, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$500 million, according to press reports.   
Lianlian ranked first among the independent digital payment solution providers in China in terms of TPV in 2022, with a market share of 9.1%, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan.   
The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing additional revenue streams.


Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

Headquartered in Shenzhen, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pax-global-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7514:1" rel="noopener">Pax Global Technology (327 HK)</a> is a Chinese company with more than 60 million point-of-sale terminals that are used in nearly 120 countries around the world. On 26 October, there was news that the U.S. <a href="https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/10/fbi-raids-chinese-point-of-sale-giant-pax-technology/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FBI raided</a> the Florida offices of Pax Global. We would not Buy the dip on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pax-global-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7514:1" rel="noopener">Pax Global Technology (327 HK) </a>due to three main reasons:<ul>
<li>First, the U.S. FBI would not have raided the company's offices unless it had significant amounts of evidence that suggested that something very wrong was occurring at the company. </li>
<li>Second, the legal fight will likely get prolonged. </li>
<li>Third, while this legal fight gets prolonged, this will likely result in many existing customers around the world stop using the company's point-of-sale terminals and new potential customers using other suppliers. </li>
</ul>

Headquartered in Shenzhen, Pax Global Technology (327 HK) is a Chinese company with more than 60 million point-of-sale terminals that are used in nearly 120 countries around the world. On 26 October, there was news that the U.S. FBI raided the Florida offices of Pax Global. We would not Buy the dip on Pax Global Technology (327 HK) due to three main reasons:
First, the U.S. FBI would not have raided the company's offices unless it had significant amounts of evidence that suggested that something very wrong was occurring at the company. 
Second, the legal fight will likely get prolonged. 
Third, while this legal fight gets prolonged, this will likely result in many existing customers around the world stop using the company's point-of-sale terminals and new potential customers using other suppliers. 


PAX Global Technology Gets Raided by the US FBI - Is This The Tip of the Cybersecurity Iceberg?

Hong Kong

Hi Sun Technology is a leading integrated solutions provider for payment, finance, and telecommunications. The company offers payment and digital services, fintech services, platform operation solutions, and financial solutions, including payment processing, micro-lending, supply chain financing, and information system consultancy. It is headquartered in Hong Kong and was founded in 2001.

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Hi Sun Technology (818 HK)

EM Equity Strategy: Remain Overweight China

The MSCI EM index continues to develop positively from a price perspective and we expect higher prices ahead. China remains leadership --...

Vermilion Research

Lianlian DigiTech IPO: PHIP Updates

The PHIP reinforces the bear case of operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability, and a volatile FCF with a deteriorating balance sheet.

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on margin pressure on the fastest-growing business, operating losses, an unconvincing path to profitability,...

Arun George

LianLian DigiTech IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on rising market share, doubling of active customers, resilient core business growth and rapidly growing...

Arun George

PAX Global Technology Gets Raided by the US FBI - Is This The Tip of the Cybersecurity Iceberg?

In this insight, we discuss about a company called Pax Global Technology (327 HK). On 26 October, there was news that the U.S. FBI raided the...

Douglas Kim

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