Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There will be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
Estimated one-way turnover is 64.6% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 161.3bn (US$1.8bn). There are 27 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
Some stocks will have passive flows from other index trackers at the same time while others are potential adds/close adds to global indices over the next couple of months.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, State Bank Of India, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco Industries.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra &amp; Mahindra, State Bank of India, HDFC Bank, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, State Bank Of India, Hdfc Bank, Hindalco Industries.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.</li>
<li>FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.</li>
<li>Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.</li>
</ul>


Vertically integrated Inner Mongolia smelter with second-quartile cost positioning, expanding renewables and alumina self-sufficiency, and entering overseas low-carbon production via its Saudi project.
FY24 margins inflected sharply; mid-cycle valuation implies material upside with strong sensitivity to aluminium pricing and structural demand drivers including AI datacentres, EVs, and grid expansion.
Base-Case Target Price HK$18.6 (24% upside); bull-case HK$22.1; bear-case HK$16.9, supported by integrated operations and medium-term EBITDA expansion potential.


Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Coal India, Eternal, Hdfc Bank, Icici Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, Coal India, Jsw Steel.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of NIFTY in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, Coal India, Eternal, Hdfc Bank, Icici Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors, Coal India, Jsw Steel.


NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an Indian aluminium and copper manufacturing company, and a subsidiary of the Aditya Birla Group. It is a major producer of primary aluminium, flat-rolled products, extrusions, and foils, and also manufactures copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1958.

Price Gauge
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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close today. On average, the adds have outperformed the deletes by 2.76% since announcement of the...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Eternal (ETERNAL IN), Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN), Mahindra &...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Adani Enterprises (ADE/S IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN), ICICI Bank (ICICIBC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: Huge Turnover and Flow in December

The Nifty200 Momentum30 Index rebalances at the close today. On average, the adds have outperformed the deletes by 2.76% since announcement of the...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Nov): Eternal, Hindalco Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Nov 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Eternal (ETERNAL IN), Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN), Mahindra &...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chuangxin Industries: Buy – Attractive Cost Positioning and Medium-Term Growth Visibility

​Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...

Rahul Jain

NIFTY Index Earning Revision (Oct): Adani Enterprises, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Motors

We analyzed NIFTY's consensus for Oct 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Adani Enterprises (ADE/S IN), JSW Steel (JSTL IN), ICICI Bank (ICICIBC...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Inner Mongolia smelter poised for growth with renewables expansion and overseas projects, FY24 margins strong with potential upside in aluminium...