External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.</li><li>Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).</li><li>LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and speciality shipments.Despite lower shipments, revenue (down 20%/7% YoY/QoQ) missed our estimate by only 2%, led by an improved product mix (higher auto shipments).LME Aluminium prices were down 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

<div><ul><li>Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian Aluminium and Copper operations.</li><li>Aluminium EBITDA grew by 32% QoQ on lower coal costs.</li><li>Copper EBITDA stood robust, up 10% QoQ, led by higher shipments (up 11% YoY) and better TC/RCs.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian Aluminium and Copper operations.Aluminium EBITDA grew by 32% QoQ on lower coal costs.Copper EBITDA stood robust, up 10% QoQ, led by higher shipments (up 11% YoY) and better TC/RCs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Recover; Macro Uncertainties Persist

<ul><li>Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.</li><li>EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.</li><li>Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

<ul><li>Novelis margins to remain impacted for a few more quarters: As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ), which along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.</li><li>Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.</li><li>Upstream Aluminium EBITDA/t (down 57% YoY) improved sequentially on the easing of energy prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis margins to remain impacted for a few more quarters: As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ), which along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.Upstream Aluminium EBITDA/t (down 57% YoY) improved sequentially on the easing of energy prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Improve QoQ; Novelis Remains a Drag

<ul><li>Macro factors hit margin: Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) of the company.</li><li>Lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ) along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.</li><li>Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro factors hit margin: Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) of the company.Lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ) along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Macro Drives Weak Q3 at Novelis; Near Term Outlook Muted

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an Indian aluminium and copper manufacturing company, and a subsidiary of the Aditya Birla Group. It is a major producer of primary aluminium, flat-rolled products, extrusions, and foils, and also manufactures copper cathodes and continuous cast copper rods. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was founded in 1958.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis

Novelis’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT stood largely in line despite a surprise 9%/6% YoY/QoQ drop in shipments (4% miss) to 879kt due to lower can and...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Recover; Macro Uncertainties Persist

Consolidated Segmental EBITDA (down 19%YoY) recovered QoQ by 21%, a 4% beat vs. our estimate driven by better-than-expected EBITDA at Indian...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Improve QoQ; Novelis Remains a Drag

As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Macro Drives Weak Q3 at Novelis; Near Term Outlook Muted

Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can...

Axis Direct

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