Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.</li>
<li>Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.</li>
<li>Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.</li>
</ul>


Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.
Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.
Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.


Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

<ul>
<li>Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). </li>
<li>We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's</li>
<li>Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.</li>
</ul>


Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). 
We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's
Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

<ul>
<li>Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. </li>
<li>Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.</li>
<li>Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.</li>
</ul>


Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. 
Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.
Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.</li>
<li>If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


There could be 19 constituent changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% and that will result in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn).
The adds have outperformed the deletes in the short-term. With the index based on momentum, there could be further gains over the next couple of weeks.


NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

​Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

​Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

​Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 64% One-Way Turnover & US$1.8bn Trade

We forecast 19 changes for the index in Dec. One-way turnover is estimated at 64.2% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 163bn (US$1.8bn). The...

Brian Freitas

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...