Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.</li>
<li>Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.</li>
</ul>


Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.
Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.
Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.


Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.</li>
<li>Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
In our prior Int'l Compass (Oct. 16) we discussed how the pullback was testing the uptrend, and we were buyers; this worked out well with indexes back at all-time highs.
Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S. remain our only overweights, but India is becoming more attractive as well -- add selective exposure. Many buy ideas highlighted in these countries.


India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>As we enter 2026, the Indian equity market stands at a critical inflection point — transitioning from a phase dominated by domestic liquidity to one where earnings delivery, policy alignment, and macro stability will be the primary drivers of returns.</li><li>Indian equities saw divergent performance in 2025, with the Nifty 50 hitting a record high of 26,326 on 1 st December and delivering a 10.2% annual return.</li><li>Broader markets lagged, as the Nifty 500 rose 6.4% and the Nifty smallcap 250 fell 6.4% as of 1 st Dec, 2025. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As we enter 2026, the Indian equity market stands at a critical inflection point — transitioning from a phase dominated by domestic liquidity to one where earnings delivery, policy alignment, and macro stability will be the primary drivers of returns.Indian equities saw divergent performance in 2025, with the Nifty 50 hitting a record high of 26,326 on 1 st December and delivering a 10.2% annual return.Broader markets lagged, as the Nifty 500 rose 6.4% and the Nifty smallcap 250 fell 6.4% as of 1 st Dec, 2025. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

New Year Picks 2026: Capturing India’s Next Growth Phase

<ul><li>Upstream Aluminium resilient: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 15% YoY (down 13% QoQ) to $1,467/t, despite lower LME Aluminium (averaged at $2,444/t, down 3%/7% YoY/QoQ) and third-party shipments at 219 kt, down 6%/9% YoY/QoQ.</li><li>This was driven by lower CoP, which fell by 3% QoQ in Q1FY26 due to higher linkage coal usage (63% in fuel mix).</li><li>Q2FY26 CoP is expected to rise 3% QoQ on monsoon impact and higher CP Coke prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upstream Aluminium resilient: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 15% YoY (down 13% QoQ) to $1,467/t, despite lower LME Aluminium (averaged at $2,444/t, down 3%/7% YoY/QoQ) and third-party shipments at 219 kt, down 6%/9% YoY/QoQ.This was driven by lower CoP, which fell by 3% QoQ in Q1FY26 due to higher linkage coal usage (63% in fuel mix).Q2FY26 CoP is expected to rise 3% QoQ on monsoon impact and higher CP Coke prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Continue to Outperform

<ul><li>Strong performance at upstream Aluminium: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 74%/14% YoY/QoQ to $1,684/t on account of lower input costs and higher LME Aluminium price (up 19%/2% YoY/QoQ), partially offset by lower third-party shipments, which stood at 240 kt, down 3% YoY/QoQ each.</li><li>In Q4FY25, aluminium CoP was down 1% QoQ, and in Q1FY26, it could stay flat or move up by 1% QoQ, as CP coke prices have inched up while coal prices are flat.</li><li>Aluminium downstream EBITDA/t rose sharply by 45%/34% YoY/QoQ to $240/t, while shipments stood flat YoY (up 6% QoQ), driven by better product mix comprising foil stock and packaging.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong performance at upstream Aluminium: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 74%/14% YoY/QoQ to $1,684/t on account of lower input costs and higher LME Aluminium price (up 19%/2% YoY/QoQ), partially offset by lower third-party shipments, which stood at 240 kt, down 3% YoY/QoQ each.In Q4FY25, aluminium CoP was down 1% QoQ, and in Q1FY26, it could stay flat or move up by 1% QoQ, as CP coke prices have inched up while coal prices are flat.Aluminium downstream EBITDA/t rose sharply by 45%/34% YoY/QoQ to $240/t, while shipments stood flat YoY (up 6% QoQ), driven by better product mix comprising foil stock and packaging.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Robust Q4: Indian Operations Continue to Deliver Strong Performance

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

New Year Picks 2026: Capturing India’s Next Growth Phase

As we enter 2026, the Indian equity market stands at a critical inflection point — transitioning from a phase dominated by domestic liquidity to...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Continue to Outperform

Upstream Aluminium resilient: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 15% YoY (down 13% QoQ) to $1,467/t, despite lower LME Aluminium (averaged at $2,444/t, down...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Robust Q4: Indian Operations Continue to Deliver Strong Performance

Aluminium: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 74%/14% YoY/QoQ to $1,684/t on account of lower input costs and higher LME Aluminium price (up 19%/2% YoY/QoQ)

Axis Direct

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

​Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.

Rahul Jain

India Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

India's $SENSEX Finally Showing Signs of Life; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI; Actionable...

Vermilion Research

New Year Picks 2026: Capturing India’s Next Growth Phase

As we enter 2026, the Indian equity market stands at a critical inflection point — transitioning from a phase dominated by domestic liquidity to...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Continue to Outperform

Upstream Aluminium resilient: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 15% YoY (down 13% QoQ) to $1,467/t, despite lower LME Aluminium (averaged at $2,444/t, down...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Robust Q4: Indian Operations Continue to Deliver Strong Performance

Aluminium: Upstream EBITDA/t grew by 74%/14% YoY/QoQ to $1,684/t on account of lower input costs and higher LME Aluminium price (up 19%/2% YoY/QoQ)

Axis Direct

Novelis' strong performance and growth in downstream India sectors drive valuation re-rating and potential 44% upside in 24-30 months.