Materials| Industrials |Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.</li>
<li>Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.</li>
<li>Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.</li>
</ul>


Novelis posted $1.8B EBITDA on 3.76Mt volume, with weakness in North America offset by aerospace and packaging recovery in Europe and Asia.
Management withheld guidance citing demand uncertainty; Bay Minette capex rose to $4.1B with commissioning now in 2H FY26.
Scrap supply tightness and tariff pressures may hit margins; company expects prolonged impact despite mitigation efforts underway.


Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hindalco hosted its Investor Day 2025 yesterday, highlighting its growth strategy across segments, underlining its $10 Bn growth capex ($5 Bn at Novelis and Indian operations each) till FY29.</li><li>These under-execution growth projects will drive EBITDA growth for the company in future.</li><li>The company has also quantified the probable margin improvement (EBITDA/t improvement over the base year of FY24) post the execution of its growth projects. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco hosted its Investor Day 2025 yesterday, highlighting its growth strategy across segments, underlining its $10 Bn growth capex ($5 Bn at Novelis and Indian operations each) till FY29.These under-execution growth projects will drive EBITDA growth for the company in future.The company has also quantified the probable margin improvement (EBITDA/t improvement over the base year of FY24) post the execution of its growth projects. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Investor Day 2025 - Reinforces the Growth Trajectory

<ul>
<li>Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). </li>
<li>We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's</li>
<li>Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.</li>
</ul>


Hindalco provided details of its ongoing expansion plans of about US$9.1b (US$1.7b spent). 
We note near-term headwinds from a) likely weakness in aluminium prices driven by cheaper alumina b) scrap market tightness c) sharp contraction in copper Tc/Rc's
Valuations: Hindalco trades at about 6.8x EV/EBITDA FY26e which is inline with historic multiples. A lower multiple is warranted to factor impending headwinds.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

<ul>
<li>Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. </li>
<li>Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.</li>
<li>Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.</li>
</ul>


Play on rising aluminium demand. Aluminium demand has outpaced supply with strong Chinese demand. 
Management has guided better margins at Novelis which faced a temporary drop in margins due to scrap shortages.
Hindalco's Indian operations are fully integrated with captive bauxite, alumina and to certain extent for energy. Trades at a 20%+ discount to its historic PE multiples.


Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.</li><li>Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR76b (+29% YoY/-4% QoQ), in line with our est. of INR77b, driven by lower costs and operating efficiencies.</li><li>APAT stood at INR38b (+61% YoY/-12% QoQ), in line with our estimate.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR76b (+29% YoY/-4% QoQ), in line with our est. of INR77b, driven by lower costs and operating efficiencies.APAT stood at INR38b (+61% YoY/-12% QoQ), in line with our estimate.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Investor Day 2025 - Reinforces the Growth Trajectory

Hindalco hosted its Investor Day 2025 yesterday, highlighting its growth strategy across segments, underlining its $10 Bn growth capex ($5 Bn at...

Axis Direct

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Motilal Oswal

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Novelis: Cautious Outlook Amid Heavy U.S. Capex and Scrap Volatility

​Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Rahul Jain

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Investor Day 2025 - Reinforces the Growth Trajectory

Hindalco hosted its Investor Day 2025 yesterday, highlighting its growth strategy across segments, underlining its $10 Bn growth capex ($5 Bn at...

Axis Direct

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Investor Day Reaffirms Strategic Growth Plans

​Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco (HNDL IN): Several Positive Triggers

​Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...

Rahul Jain

Hindalco - In-Line Performance; Muted Novelis Performance Offset by Strong India Operation

3QFY25 consolidated net sales stood at INR584b (+11 YoY/flat QoQ), in line with our est. of INR595b, aided by better realization.

Motilal Oswal

Novelis reports strong EBITDA but faces uncertainty and challenges ahead due to demand fluctuations, capex increase, and potential margin pressures.

Hindalco reveals $9.1b expansion plans, faces near-term challenges from aluminum price weakness and copper Tc/Rc contraction. Lower valuations...

Rising aluminium demand, particularly in China, is driving opportunities for companies like Hindalco with fully integrated operations and...