Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Over 20 years of sell-side research experience across Global Metals & Mining, Cement, Industrials, and Commodities. Extensive first-hand mine and plant visits spanning India, Australia, China, the US, and the UK.
Hundreds of buy-side engagements across major global financial hubs in Asia, North America, and Europe. Also led a comprehensive client tour of China to deepen industry understanding.

Focused on fundamentals-driven analysis including earnings modeling, cost structures, and valuations using DCF and relative multiples. Global commodity cycles, supply-demand trends, and macro factors are integrated into sector calls. Research prioritizes inflection points from price, cost, and policy shifts, using a disciplined bottom-up approach supported by top-down macro screening.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.</li>
<li>Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.</li>
<li>Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.</li>
</ul>


Earnings decouple from LME as Novelis delivers contracted conversion margins and Bay Minette adds multi-year EBITDA.
Downstream India compounds via EV, aerospace and façades with 4× EBITDA targeted by FY30.
Valuation re-rates toward industrial multiples, driving ~44% upside over 24–30 months.


Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility

Hindalco Industries

Hindalco: 44% Upside as Earnings De-Link from LME Volatility