External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.</li><li>EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.</li><li>Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis’s numbers stood largely on expected lines.EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t touching +$400/t in Q4FY23.Revenue (small beat by 2%) grew by 5% QoQ (below 9% YoY on the strong base of the last year), led by a recovery in shipments to 936kt (up 3% QoQ).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.</li><li>Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.</li><li>Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tata Steel reported its provisional sales volumes for Q4FY23.Its Indian operations sales stood at 5.15MT, up marginally by 0.5% YoY and a robust 9% QoQ.Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Novelis margins to remain impacted for a few more quarters: As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ), which along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.</li><li>Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.</li><li>Upstream Aluminium EBITDA/t (down 57% YoY) improved sequentially on the easing of energy prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Novelis margins to remain impacted for a few more quarters: As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ), which along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.Upstream Aluminium EBITDA/t (down 57% YoY) improved sequentially on the easing of energy prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Improve QoQ; Novelis Remains a Drag

<ul><li>Macro factors hit margin: Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) of the company.</li><li>Lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ) along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.</li><li>Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro factors hit margin: Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) of the company.Lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ) along with higher energy costs led to a dip in the Adj EBITDA/t to a six-year low at $376/t.Recovery from the low margin will be gradual as the headwinds are expected to persist for a few more quarters.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Macro Drives Weak Q3 at Novelis; Near Term Outlook Muted

<ul><li>We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.</li><li>SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%/5% YoY/QoQ).Tata Steel’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to fall by 66%/10% YoY/QoQ led by lower sales realisations and higher energy costs in Europe.SAIL’s revenue is expected to increase by 2% YoY on the lower base of the last year’s sales volume, partly offset by fall in sales realisations YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining  - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Margin Recovery at Novelis on Expected Lines

EBITDA/t has recovered from the trough of $376/t in Q3FY23 to $431/t in Q4FY23 (5% beat) in line with the earlier management commentary of EBITDA/t...

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY23 Earnings Preview

Tata Steel Europe’s sales volume declined to 2.13 MT, down 11% YoY, but recovered by 7% QoQ, indicating an improving demand environment.

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Indian Operations Improve QoQ; Novelis Remains a Drag

As we have written in the 8th Feb note, destocking in the key can segment (60kt impact) led to lower shipments (down 2%/8% YoY/QoQ

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Macro Drives Weak Q3 at Novelis; Near Term Outlook Muted

Post Covid, pent-up demand in the beverage cans is abating. This along with easing supply chain has led to channel destocking in the key can...

Axis Direct

Metals and Mining - Q3FY23 Earnings Preview

We expect Tata steel to report revenue de-growth on both YoY/QoQ basis, led by a drop in HRC prices at India and Europe (ex-Mumbai prices down 25%...

Axis Direct

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