Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.</li>
<li>Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.</li>
<li>Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.</li>
</ul>


ESG Premium Anchored: 100% hydro power + FTSE4Good inclusion support Press Metal’s 12× EV/EBITDA multiple, in line with Norsk Hydro.
Commodity Torque: Earnings highly leveraged to LME aluminium (~RM0.2 bn EBITDA shift per US$100/t); current base case assumes US$2,650/t.
Valuation Balance: SoTP fair value MYR 6.5–6.9/share (~10–15% upside); without ESG uplift, fair value reverts to ~MYR 5.0–5.2/share.


Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>The past month has witnessed a remarkable shift in India-China relations, with multiple high-profile developments signaling the most significant thaw in bilateral ties since 2020.</li>
<li>Despite the expansion in bilateral commerce, India continues to face a significant trade deficit, especially in pharmaceuticals, where dependence on Chinese imports remains high. </li>
<li>At present, the revived engagement seems to offer greater advantages to Chinese companies than to their Indian counterparts.</li>
</ul>


The past month has witnessed a remarkable shift in India-China relations, with multiple high-profile developments signaling the most significant thaw in bilateral ties since 2020.
Despite the expansion in bilateral commerce, India continues to face a significant trade deficit, especially in pharmaceuticals, where dependence on Chinese imports remains high. 
At present, the revived engagement seems to offer greater advantages to Chinese companies than to their Indian counterparts.


India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-aluminium-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1770:1" rel="noopener">National Aluminium (NACL IN)</a> has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.</li>
<li>Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted "Maharatna" status by 2030.</li>
<li>This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.</li>
</ul>



National Aluminium (NACL IN) has announced a significant INR 30,000 crore capex over the next five years, its largest in recent history, to expand its core smelting, power generation capabilities.
Targeting an almost doubling of its smelting capacity and securing long-term power supply. This is crucial for NALCO to enhance its competitiveness and achieve the coveted "Maharatna" status by 2030.
This expansion, funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt, positions NALCO for an earnings inflection point, contingent on disciplined execution and favorable long-term commodity cycles.


The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited / Equity Capital Markets

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiaxin-international-resources-investment-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45065:1" rel="noopener">Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited</a>(JIRI) raised around US$153m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production began in April 2025, with full ramp-up expected by 2027</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited(JIRI) raised around US$153m in its Hong Kong IPO.
Jiaxin International owns exclusive rights to a globally significant tungsten asset, supported by Jiangxi Copper. Commercial production began in April 2025, with full ramp-up expected by 2027
We have looked at the company’s background and pricing in our earlier note, in this note we talk about the trading dynamics.


Jiaxin International Resources Investment IPO Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Track Record

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood

India-China relations have seen a notable improvement, but India still struggles with trade deficit and dependence on Chinese imports, giving...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jiaxin International Resources Investment IPO Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Track Record

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited(JIRI) raised around US$153m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

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Press Metal: ESG Premium Vs. Aluminium Price Torque

​Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

Rahul Jain

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

India & China – Rekindling Brotherhood

​India-China relations have seen a notable improvement, but India still struggles with trade deficit and dependence on Chinese imports, giving...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Beat Ideas: Nalco's ₹30,000 Crore Expansion

​National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Jiaxin International Resources Investment IPO Trading - Decent Demand, Despite Lack of Track Record

Jiaxin International Resources Investment Limited(JIRI) raised around US$153m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Press Metal's ESG focus and inclusion in FTSE4Good drive valuation, with potential upside based on commodity prices and sustainability factors.

India-China relations have seen a notable improvement, but India still struggles with trade deficit and dependence on Chinese imports, giving...

National Aluminium (NACL IN) plans INR 30,000 crore capex to double smelting capacity and secure long-term power supply, aiming for "Maharatna"...