External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Upstream Aluminium CoP: In Q4FY24, the CoP stood flat QoQ. In Q1FY25 the CoP is expected to come down by another ~1%-2% QoQ led by softness in coal prices.</li><li>Upstream Aluminium shipments and revenues improved by 4% and 5% YoY at 337kt and Rs 8,469 Cr, while EBITDA/t jumped up by 17%/21% YoY/QoQ to $967/t, led by lower input costs. </li><li>Aluminium downstream: EBITDA/t recovered QoQ at $174/t, up 14%/27% YoY/QoQ in-line with management guidance. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Upstream Aluminium CoP: In Q4FY24, the CoP stood flat QoQ. In Q1FY25 the CoP is expected to come down by another ~1%-2% QoQ led by softness in coal prices.Upstream Aluminium shipments and revenues improved by 4% and 5% YoY at 337kt and Rs 8,469 Cr, while EBITDA/t jumped up by 17%/21% YoY/QoQ to $967/t, led by lower input costs. Aluminium downstream: EBITDA/t recovered QoQ at $174/t, up 14%/27% YoY/QoQ in-line with management guidance. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Robust Q4 & Good Outlook, But Large Part of Value Is Priced In

<ul><li>Valuation &amp; Recommendation: We continue to value the company using SoTP with a 12MF EV/EBITDA target of 6.0x/5.0x/6.0x FY26 EBITDA for Indian Aluminium, Copper, and Novelis operations respectively (from 6.0x/5.0x/5.5x; we raise Novelis multiple in response to strong Q4 results).</li><li>We add investments at market price and CWIP at 50% to arrive at our TP of Rs 720/share (from Rs 660).</li><li>Our TP implies an upside potential of 13% from the CMP. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Valuation &amp; Recommendation: We continue to value the company using SoTP with a 12MF EV/EBITDA target of 6.0x/5.0x/6.0x FY26 EBITDA for Indian Aluminium, Copper, and Novelis operations respectively (from 6.0x/5.0x/5.5x; we raise Novelis multiple in response to strong Q4 results).We add investments at market price and CWIP at 50% to arrive at our TP of Rs 720/share (from Rs 660).Our TP implies an upside potential of 13% from the CMP. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Novelis Q4FY24: Delivers Robust EBITDA/T

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q4FY24 earnings season was marked by a) Strong domestic macroeconomic environment, b) Robust PMI manufacturing and Services, c) Stronger E-way bill and GST collection, and d) Strong pickup in electricity demand.</li><li>Domestic-facing sectors largely enjoyed the economic recovery backed by these factors and hence, margins may surprise positively.</li><li>Most of the domestic high-frequency indicators have trended higher during the quarter which is likely to translate into good demand momentum for the domestic corporate segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY24 earnings season was marked by a) Strong domestic macroeconomic environment, b) Robust PMI manufacturing and Services, c) Stronger E-way bill and GST collection, and d) Strong pickup in electricity demand.Domestic-facing sectors largely enjoyed the economic recovery backed by these factors and hence, margins may surprise positively.Most of the domestic high-frequency indicators have trended higher during the quarter which is likely to translate into good demand momentum for the domestic corporate segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).</li><li>We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.</li><li>Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We anticipate margin contraction for steel companies within our coverage due to decreased steel price realizations (average HRC benchmark prices down 7% YoY and 5% QoQ in Q4FY24) and increased coking coal consumption costs (largely flat YoY but higher QoQ), despite a QoQ recovery in sales volumes driven by seasonally strong performance in Q4 (although volumes remain largely flat YoY).We expect another good quarter for base metal stocks under our coverage.Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Motilal Oswal's research report onHindalco Hindalco (HNDL) is undertaking ~USD6b (revised upwards from USD4.6b) multi locational-multi product growth capex over the next five years.</li><li>The initiative aims to augment its capacity across various regions, including the USA (FRP and recycling mill), Utkal (alumina debottlenecking), Aditya (can recycling and battery foil mill), and Silvassa (extrusion).</li><li>HNDL recently also announced its plan to set up a 25kt battery foil manufacturing facility at Odisha at a total capex of ~INR8b, which will cater to the growing domestic EV requirements.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Motilal Oswal's research report onHindalco Hindalco (HNDL) is undertaking ~USD6b (revised upwards from USD4.6b) multi locational-multi product growth capex over the next five years.The initiative aims to augment its capacity across various regions, including the USA (FRP and recycling mill), Utkal (alumina debottlenecking), Aditya (can recycling and battery foil mill), and Silvassa (extrusion).HNDL recently also announced its plan to set up a 25kt battery foil manufacturing facility at Odisha at a total capex of ~INR8b, which will cater to the growing domestic EV requirements.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hindalco - Capacity Expansion to Drive Performance

India

Hindalco Industries Limited is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines bauxite and refines it into alumina. The Company's other operations include the smelting of alumina into aluminum, the manufacture of semi-fabricated rolled and extruded products. The Company's products include aluminum ingots, steel rods and rolled flat steel products.

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Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Robust Q4 & Good Outlook, But Large Part of Value Is Priced In

Upstream Aluminium CoP: In Q4FY24, the CoP stood flat QoQ. In Q1FY25 the CoP is expected to come down by another ~1%-2% QoQ led by softness in coal...

Axis Direct

Hindalco Industries Ltd - Novelis Q4FY24: Delivers Robust EBITDA/T

Valuation & Recommendation: We continue to value the company using SoTP with a 12MF EV/EBITDA target of 6.0x/5.0x/6.0x FY26 EBITDA for Indian...

Axis Direct

Q4FY24 Consolidated Earnings Preview

Q4FY24 earnings season was marked by a) Strong domestic macroeconomic environment, b) Robust PMI manufacturing and Services, c) Stronger E-way bill...

Axis Direct

Metals - Q4FY24 Earnings Preview

Both Hindalco and NALCO are expected to report margin expansion YoY/QoQ on higher shipments, stable LME, and lower coal/power costs.

Axis Direct

Hindalco - Capacity Expansion to Drive Performance

Motilal Oswal's research report onHindalco Hindalco (HNDL) is undertaking ~USD6b (revised upwards from USD4.6b) multi locational-multi product...

Motilal Oswal

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