Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.</li>
<li>There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a potential inclusion to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.</li>
</ul>


Currently, 9 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
There has been a buildup on shorts on few stocks with minimal positioning in the other stocks. That could change once the calendar ticks over to 2025.

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a potential inclusion to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March and this deletion could provide liquidity to enter a position ahead of that announcement.


Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.</li>
<li>Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.</li>
<li>Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.</li>
</ul>


Sentiment for AI related rising with NVDA de-risked and outlook strong, despite the marginal beat.
Kioxia IPO pricing at $4.84bn supportive for memory ecosystem names.
Deere numbers and outlook for farming lifting AG machinery names - watch Kubota.


Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

<ul>
<li>Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.</li>
<li>Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.</li>
</ul>


Tech weakness in Japan to continue, following the profit taking lead out of the US with NVDA numbers on Wednesday.
Defence related may get a lift after yesterdays weakness, with Middle East tensions rising, Japan warding off a Chinese spy plane and ex-Defence Minister announcing candidacy for LDP leader.
Typhoon Shanshan is expected in Kyushu. Resulting weakness on related names is usually short-lived and largely retail investor driven, making reverse positioning into the moves the more attractive tactic.


Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

<ul>
<li>Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micronics-japan-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6871 Micronics</a> after yesterdays excessive weakness.</li>
<li>More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.</li>
<li>Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.</li>
</ul>


Gains for Micron on the potential for DDR5 price hikes should help lift 6871 Micronics after yesterdays excessive weakness.
More cheer for US home builders after Smith Douglas number beat, adding to the upside story for Sumi Forestry and Selkisui House.
Defence related plays should remain in the spotlight with Kishida replacement candidates Ishiba and Kono both ex-defence ministers.


Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A week ago, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.</li>
<li>But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.</li>
<li>I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against. </li>
</ul>


A week ago, the Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) AGM took place. The activist which had proposed a shareholder resolution saw ISS and Glass Lewis support.
But that was to no avail as the shareholder proposal got 29.89% of the votes, and 26.15% of total voting rights. This likely informs the near-term future of such proposals.
I expect the ask needs to change, and the agenda item needs to be difficult to be against. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

Japan

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, sells, and repairs construction machinery. The Company's products include hydraulic excavators, crawler cranes, wheel loaders, shield machines, and bulldozers. Hitachi Construction Machinery, a subsidiary of Hitachi, Ltd., markets its products worldwide through sales offices overseas.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

Keisei has underperformed OLC by 12% since the day AFTER I wrote this piece. It has underperformed by 30+% since Feb highs. Keisei is down 35%...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan: Potential Passive Selling in February

These 9 stocks continue to remain potential deletes in February along with 2 more now. There has been an increase in shorts as the stocks have, on...

Brian Freitas

Japan Morning Connection: Risk-On for the AI Ecosystem

​AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Further Sector Rotation on the Cards as Risk-Off Mood for Tech Continues

​Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Micronics, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy

​Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...

Andrew Jackson

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Keisei Elec (9009) AGM Result Not Salutary, Tough To Win On This Stance

Keisei has underperformed OLC by 12% since the day AFTER I wrote this piece. It has underperformed by 30+% since Feb highs. Keisei is down 35%...

Travis Lundy

AI sentiment rising with NVDA de-risked, Kioxia IPO positive for memory ecosystem names, Deere's positive outlook lifts AG machinery names like...

Tech weakness in Japan likely to persist. Defense stocks may see a boost amid rising tensions. Reverse position into Typhoon-related weakness.

Micron's gains from potential DDR5 price hikes could boost Micronics; Defence-related stocks are in focus with Kishida replacement candidates both...