Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.</li>
<li>No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.</li>
<li>No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.</li>
</ul>


Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.


HLB Merger Arb's Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

<ul>
<li>Appraisal rights are for HLB Life Science holders only. Record date: April 16. Objection: May 28–June 11. Exercise: June 12–July 2. Spread’s fat—over 11% today.</li>
<li>Swap spread closed at 2.3%. With short selling back, execution looks clean. Classic arb: short HLB Inc, long HLB Life Science, cover with new HLB Inc shares post-merger.</li>
<li>HLB has a cult-like retail base that follows management blindly. Despite headline cancellation risk, real odds may be lower, meaning the swap spread could be seriously mispriced—prime arb setup.</li>
</ul>


Appraisal rights are for HLB Life Science holders only. Record date: April 16. Objection: May 28–June 11. Exercise: June 12–July 2. Spread’s fat—over 11% today.
Swap spread closed at 2.3%. With short selling back, execution looks clean. Classic arb: short HLB Inc, long HLB Life Science, cover with new HLB Inc shares post-merger.
HLB has a cult-like retail base that follows management blindly. Despite headline cancellation risk, real odds may be lower, meaning the swap spread could be seriously mispriced—prime arb setup.


Complete Breakdown of the HLB Merger Swap Details

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

South Korea

HLB Inc. operates cord blood banking and clinical demonstration service. The Company also produces industrial valves, and iron manufacturing machines.  The Company's subsidiaries are engaged in a wide range of businesses including manufacturing of electric field instruments, lifeboats and agent services.

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HLB Inc (028300 KS)

HLB Merger Arb's Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

This post dives into the unique timing dynamics of the HLB merger arb for those aiming to hunt the current 8% swap spread.

Sanghyun Park

Complete Breakdown of the HLB Merger Swap Details

This post covers: HLB’s cult-like retail base, its blind loyalty to management, and why the headline cancellation risk might be...

Sanghyun Park

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Not a lot of shorts were covered on Monday. There could be more covering in the near term as the market drifts lower. KOSPI200 underperformed...

Brian Freitas

Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Media reports indicate that there could be a temporary short sell ban in Korea. This could lead to futures backwardation, market manipulation and a...

Brian Freitas

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