External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.</li><li>Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.</li><li>We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.Tepid 4% growth in 2024 minimum wages may lead to further downtrading; we expect the SKT category to continue gaining share.We maintain OW rating as the sector’s 10.6x FY24F PE (24% disc. to avg 3yr PE) has priced in the downside, with cushion from 6-11% div. yield.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds

<ul><li>Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume growth (especially in the tier-1 category).</li><li>However, we expect higher ASPs to still translate to better margins and earnings growth in 3Q23 (+36% yoy), especially for GGRM.</li><li>Maintain Overweight. Price tracker: no significant movements in the past few months. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume growth (especially in the tier-1 category).However, we expect higher ASPs to still translate to better margins and earnings growth in 3Q23 (+36% yoy), especially for GGRM.Maintain Overweight. Price tracker: no significant movements in the past few months. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cigarette - Upbeat 3Q23 yoy earnings growth; attractive yield play

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HMSP reported 1Q23 net profits of IDR2.16tn, +12.8% yoy &amp; +52% qoq, mainly supported by higher gross margins (18% vs 4Q22’s 16.7%) and top line growth (+3% yoy).</li><li>By product category, SKT booked strong revenues growth of 19.6% yoy, while SKM and SPM booked lower revenues by 1.9% and 12.3% yoy.</li><li>The 1Q23 result is 26% of our FY23 forecast and consensus estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMSP reported 1Q23 net profits of IDR2.16tn, +12.8% yoy &amp; +52% qoq, mainly supported by higher gross margins (18% vs 4Q22’s 16.7%) and top line growth (+3% yoy).By product category, SKT booked strong revenues growth of 19.6% yoy, while SKM and SPM booked lower revenues by 1.9% and 12.3% yoy.The 1Q23 result is 26% of our FY23 forecast and consensus estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): 1Q23 Earnings: Solid Growth

<ul>
<li>Excise tax simplification for cigarettes is only likely to take place after 2024, good news for the below tier-1 cigarette producers.</li>
<li>The upcoming elections in early 2024 also reduce the possibility of the addition of new excise tax objects in the next 2 years given the focus on recovering household consumption post the Covid-19 pandemic.</li>
<li>Excise tax simplification: unlikely in 2023-24.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Excise tax simplification for cigarettes is only likely to take place after 2024, good news for the below tier-1 cigarette producers.
The upcoming elections in early 2024 also reduce the possibility of the addition of new excise tax objects in the next 2 years given the focus on recovering household consumption post the Covid-19 pandemic.
Excise tax simplification: unlikely in 2023-24.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

New year, new excise tax<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

New year, new excise taxContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ) - New year, new excise tax

Indonesia

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk manufactures hand rolled and machine-rolled clove-blended cigarettes. The Company distributes its products in the domestic and international market. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops properties.

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HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)

Cigarette: Attractive Value Proposition Despite Lingering Regulatory Headwinds

FY24 excise revenue target growth of 5% yoy and 10% avg. tariff growth implies negative industry volume growth will continue.

BRI Danareksa Research

Cigarette - Upbeat 3Q23 yoy earnings growth; attractive yield play

Our cigarette price survey revealed no significant movements in retail prices during August to Sept 2023, likely given the soft/negative volume...

BRI Danareksa Research