Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

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<li>At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.</li>
<li>Largest buying impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bfi-finance-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8447:1" rel="noopener">BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xl-axiata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15028:1" rel="noopener">XL Axiata (EXCL IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>Largest selling impact will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ace-hardware-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12808:1" rel="noopener">Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasa-marga-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12747:1" rel="noopener">Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pakuwon-jati-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8550:1" rel="noopener">Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>.</li>
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At the January review, there are 2 changes to the IDX30 Index, 5 changes to the LQ45 Index, and 9 changes to the IDX30 Index.
Largest buying impact will be on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Emtek (EMTK IJ), Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ), BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) and XL Axiata (EXCL IJ). 
Largest selling impact will be on Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ), Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) , Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE IJ) and HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ).


IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.</p>
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<section class="figure">Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY</section>
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<p>In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has announced partnerships with both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a>, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.</p>
<p>The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.</p>
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Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has a unique combination of different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia from corporate car rental, to car auction, and online marketplace but it is its end-to-end logistics business, and especially Anteraja, that is plugged directly into Indonesia's booming digital economy, that makes this an exciting story.



Anteraja has expanded its coverage area significantly and is now present in 600 service points in 34 provinces across the archipelago.  It accounted for 47% of total sales in 1H2021 and is likely to account for more than 50% of sales by 2H2021.



Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 1H2021 results saw the company's revenues grow by +50.4% YoY, with gross profit up +20% YoY, while operating profit grew +43.7%, and the company's net profit grew by +68.9% YoY

In an interesting development, Anteraja, the last-mile delivery arm of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has announced partnerships with both Grab and Gojek, to integrate both company's logistics services into its last-mile ecosystem.
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a very interesting way to play the growth in the Indonesian digital economy through its exposure to logistics and the last-mile through Anteraja, which makes up close to 50% of sales, whilst its remaining business in car rental and car auction continue to produce stable growth.
The company trades on 42x FY22E PER and 31x FY223E PER but on 16.9x FY21EV/EBITDA and 13.4x FY23E EV/EBITDA, which is probably a better measure given that this is a growth company.









Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Event-Driven

<p>The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jakarta-stock-exchange-composite-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22914:1" rel="noopener">Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX)</a> calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.</p><p>The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.</p><p>The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>.</p><p>The biggest falls in index weight are expected on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-permata-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:728:1" rel="noopener">Bank Permata (BNLI IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-brisyariah-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26981:1" rel="noopener">Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bayan-resources-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8039:1" rel="noopener">Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ)</a>.</p><p>Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charoen-pokphand-indonesi-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10889:1" rel="noopener">Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semen-indonesia-persero-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11161:1" rel="noopener">Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ)</a> while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sarana-menara-nusantara-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6848:1" rel="noopener">Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1" rel="noopener">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a> would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.</p>

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has announced a change in the Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI INDEX) calculation methodology to make it a free float market cap weighted index from a full market cap weighted index. Additionally, there will be a 9% capping on the weight of a single stock in the index.The change will take place in a phased manner in 3 stages: at the beginning of October 2020, January 2021 and April 2021.The biggest beneficiaries of the change are expected to be Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero (BBRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT (MDKA IJ), Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ), Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ) and Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ).The biggest falls in index weight are expected on Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ), Bank Permata (BNLI IJ), Bank Brisyariah (BRIS IJ), Emtek (EMTK IJ), Bayan Resources (BYAN IJ) and Bank Jago Tbk PT (ARTO IJ).Among the upweights, there could be over 2 days of ADV to trade on Charoen Pokphand Indonesi (CPIN IJ) and Semen Indonesia (Gresik) (SMGR IJ) while there could be over 1 day of ADV to trade on Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ), Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ), Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR IJ) and Astra International (ASII IJ).HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ), Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) and Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) would be the most impacted stocks with potential outflows.

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

<p>Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s </a>observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. </p><p>Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. </p>

Stable result in Q2 2021 despite the increasing COVID-19 cases in Thailand from nightclubs and concerts prompting the Thai government to extend the ban for nightlife entertainment. The interesting part is that contrary to Berli Jucker (BJC TB)'s observation that the Thais are quite happy to drink and socialize at home versus Vietnamese, who tend to consume outside the home, Sabeco (Saigon Bev Company)'s sales volume actually went up during this period and lifted Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) results, further reiterating that the Thai may be happy to drink at home but the difficult period has dampened their home drinking appetite. Thai Beverage is still trading at a lower valuation to its peak, the current valuation at 17x PER is still higher than 14x forward PER.  The recent Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as long as the pandemic is still there. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener"></a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has not been very fortunate in the past few weeks; rising cases in Bangkok that caused the management to call off the BeerCo IPO, dampened investors' excitement on the value unlocking event. Its high debt also is another factor that its share price does not get re-rated compared to its peers. In ASEAN, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is trading at a slight discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saigon-beer-alcohol-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23645:1" rel="noopener">Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN)</a> although the latter's profitability is much higher with little debt. </p>
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<p><strong>For Asian beverage investors, there are other stocks with similar profitability profiles with lower debt and much bigger markets (North Asia) such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> that receive more attention from investors.</strong></p>
<p><strong> For ASEAN beverage investors, Thai Beverage is one of the bigger and more prominent beverage companies although it is not the most profitable and the debt burden has caused some investors to shun it but it should still be a valid choice especially when it is trading at a discount such as currently. </strong></p>
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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has not been very fortunate in the past few weeks; rising cases in Bangkok that caused the management to call off the BeerCo IPO, dampened investors' excitement on the value unlocking event. Its high debt also is another factor that its share price does not get re-rated compared to its peers. In ASEAN, Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is trading at a slight discount to Saigon Beer Alcohol Beverage (SAB VN) although the latter's profitability is much higher with little debt. 

For Asian beverage investors, there are other stocks with similar profitability profiles with lower debt and much bigger markets (North Asia) such as Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK) , China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) that receive more attention from investors.
 For ASEAN beverage investors, Thai Beverage is one of the bigger and more prominent beverage companies although it is not the most profitable and the debt burden has caused some investors to shun it but it should still be a valid choice especially when it is trading at a discount such as currently. 


Thai Beverage (Thbev): Delayed Beer IPO and Undervaluation

Indonesia

PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk is an Indonesian tobacco company that manufactures, distributes, and trades a variety of cigarette and tobacco products, including machine-made and hand-rolled kretek cigarettes under brands like Dji Sam Soe Magnum, Sampoerna A, and Marlboro Filter Black. The company also offers smoke-free products and is involved in general trading, e-commerce, property development, and management consulting. It was founded in 1913 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia.

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Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)

IDX30/LQ45 Index Rebalance: BIG Impact Changes in Limited Time

There are 2 changes to the IDX30, 5 to the LQ45, and 9 to the IDX80. There are a few large impact/flow names on the IDX30/LQ45 indices. The adds...

Brian Freitas

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - From the First to the Last Mile

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) is a unique combination from different parts of the mobility ecosystem in Indonesia, directly plugged into the booming...

Angus Mackintosh

Jakarta Composite Index: Impact of Change to Capped Free Float Weighting

The JCI will change from a full market cap weighted index to a capped free float mkt cap weighted index. Beneficiaries are TLKM, BBRI, ASII, BMRI &...

Brian Freitas

Thai Beverage (THBEV): Weak Quarter Ahead

Q2 2021 result brought some optimism especially when the management displayed cost savings ability but the spirits and beer outlook remain soft as...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Delayed Beer IPO and Undervaluation

Thai Bev has not been very fortunate in the past few weeks; rising cases in Bangkok that caused the management to call off the BeerCo IPO, dampened...

Henry Soediarko

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