Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In Japan, currently two pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated a decade-long Japan underweight, lifting average exposure to 13.64%, just 0.22% below benchmark.</li>
<li>Japan has seen strong rotation in 2026, with an estimated $3.8bn of net inflows and broadening ownership across Industrials, Financials and Materials.</li>
<li>Stock selection is shifting towards semiconductors and industrial technology, led by Kioxia, Advantest and Sumitomo Electric, while established holdings including Nintendo and Sony lose ground.</li>
</ul>


Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated a decade-long Japan underweight, lifting average exposure to 13.64%, just 0.22% below benchmark.
Japan has seen strong rotation in 2026, with an estimated $3.8bn of net inflows and broadening ownership across Industrials, Financials and Materials.
Stock selection is shifting towards semiconductors and industrial technology, led by Kioxia, Advantest and Sumitomo Electric, while established holdings including Nintendo and Sony lose ground.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Honda Motor Company Limited reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026.</li><li>Operating profit for the quarter stood at JPY 591.5 billion, although this figure reflects a significant decline of JPY 548.4 billion compared to the previous year.</li><li>The company reported record highs in unit sales, operating profit, and operating margin up to the third quarter, largely driven by robust motorcycle sales in regions like India and Brazil.</li></ul>

Honda Motor Company Limited reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026.Operating profit for the quarter stood at JPY 591.5 billion, although this figure reflects a significant decline of JPY 548.4 billion compared to the previous year.The company reported record highs in unit sales, operating profit, and operating margin up to the third quarter, largely driven by robust motorcycle sales in regions like India and Brazil.

Honda Motor Co: How Policy Shifts, EV Timing, and Costs Collide in Its Next Chapter!

<ul><li>Honda Motor Company Limited's recent financial performance presents a complex picture involving both opportunities and challenges.</li><li>On the positive side, Honda's Motorcycle operations achieved record-high unit sales, operating profit, and operating margin, driven by strong sales in Brazil and the Philippines despite declines in Vietnam.</li><li>This segment's operating profit reached JPY 368.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of JPY 42.4 billion.</li></ul>

Honda Motor Company Limited's recent financial performance presents a complex picture involving both opportunities and challenges.On the positive side, Honda's Motorcycle operations achieved record-high unit sales, operating profit, and operating margin, driven by strong sales in Brazil and the Philippines despite declines in Vietnam.This segment's operating profit reached JPY 368.2 billion, marking a year-over-year increase of JPY 42.4 billion.

Honda Inside the Global Playbook: How Smart Cost Cuts in ICE & BEVs Could Rewrite Its Future!

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Currency drove a third or more of earnings at key Japanese automakers, but the market rewarded headline growth instead of earnings quality.</li>
<li>Nissan and Suzuki improved on largely unaided fundamentals, while Honda and Subaru are priced for more than they delivered.</li>
<li>The quarter was less about who beat expectations than who generated earnings without relying on the weak yen.</li>
</ul>


Currency drove a third or more of earnings at key Japanese automakers, but the market rewarded headline growth instead of earnings quality.
Nissan and Suzuki improved on largely unaided fundamentals, while Honda and Subaru are priced for more than they delivered.
The quarter was less about who beat expectations than who generated earnings without relying on the weak yen.


Japan Autos: The Weak Yen Illusion in Q1 FY2027 — Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda, Suzuki

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business.  Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor Co Ltd (Adr) (HMC US)

Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan: Underweight No More?

Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated their decade-long Japan underweight, as rising allocations and strong inflows drive rotation towards...

Steven Holden

Honda Motor Co: How Policy Shifts, EV Timing, and Costs Collide in Its Next Chapter!

Honda Motor Company Limited reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026. Operating profit for the...

Baptista Research

Honda Inside the Global Playbook: How Smart Cost Cuts in ICE & BEVs Could Rewrite Its Future!

Honda Motor Company Limited's recent financial performance presents a complex picture involving both opportunities and challenges. On the positive...

Baptista Research

Japan Autos: The Weak Yen Illusion in Q1 FY2027 — Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda, Suzuki

A weak yen flattered Japanese auto earnings, but the market mispriced the source of the beat. We favour Nissan and Suzuki, fade Honda and Subaru,...

Mo Aziz

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Japan: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (13 Oct 2026)

​Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan: Underweight No More?

Global Ex-USA funds have almost eliminated their decade-long Japan underweight, as rising allocations and strong inflows drive rotation towards...

Steven Holden

Honda Motor Co: How Policy Shifts, EV Timing, and Costs Collide in Its Next Chapter!

Honda Motor Company Limited reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026. Operating profit for the...

Baptista Research

Honda Inside the Global Playbook: How Smart Cost Cuts in ICE & BEVs Could Rewrite Its Future!

Honda Motor Company Limited's recent financial performance presents a complex picture involving both opportunities and challenges. On the positive...

Baptista Research

Japan Autos: The Weak Yen Illusion in Q1 FY2027 — Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Subaru, Mazda, Suzuki

A weak yen flattered Japanese auto earnings, but the market mispriced the source of the beat. We favour Nissan and Suzuki, fade Honda and Subaru,...

Mo Aziz

Discover two pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.