Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.</li>
<li>The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.</li>
<li>The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.
The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).


EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

<ul>
<li>After an explosive rally in April, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.</li>
<li>July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good). </li>
<li>If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.</li>
</ul>


After an explosive rally in April, the Hang Seng Index has been in a downtrend since mid-May, many are wondering where the index is headed next.
July 2024, based on our seasonal pattern analysis, does not have a great chance to close higher (it could, but the odds are not good). 
If the index goes down in the next 2 weeks, buy the 17600-17300 price area.


<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce. </li>
<li>The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.</li>
<li>Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index correction has restarted this week, after a brief 1-week bounce. 
The index may continue to downtrend for another 1-2 weeks, then a reversal should come and the uptrend should restart.
Look at the price support area in the 17500-17000 range, because that is where my model indicates the highest chance of LONG reversal.


EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.</li>
<li>It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, <strong>the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.</strong>
</li>
<li>It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been rallying for 3 weeks but then last week the rise was halted and the index gave up a good chunk of the gains.
It seems the index has become quite volatile but this week it could go up again, or otherwise next week, the reversal is imminent given its oversold condition.

It's hard to predict if the rally can continue after the bounce, the index seems a bit long-term overbought, albeit short-term oversold. A contradiction, but that is the situation now.


EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

<ul>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-s-downtrend-could-continue-in-may-but-the-bottom-is-near" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous forecast</a> will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).</li>
<li>The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.</li>
<li>A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. </li>
</ul>


If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. 


EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

Will the HSI's downtrend continue in July? There is uncertainty about the index's direction, could go lower in July, but consider buying the 17600...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

​The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Will the HSI Keep Falling In July?

​Will the HSI's downtrend continue in July? There is uncertainty about the index's direction, could go lower in July, but consider buying the 17600...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Is the HSI Correction Going to Continue? (Yes, For 1-2 Weeks)

​The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: How Low Can the Pullback Go?

​The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Will the HSI's downtrend continue in July? There is uncertainty about the index's direction, could go lower in July, but consider buying the 17600...

The HSI correction has resumed, the downtrend could continue for 1-2 more weeks before the next LONG reversal restarts the uptrend. Watch for...

The Hang Seng Index rallied hjard for 3 weeks, then last week performed a significant pullback. Strong potential for a bounce this week or the...