Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Stat-arb models flag <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> as overvalued versus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.</li>
<li>
Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.</li>
</ul>



Context: Stat-arb models flag Alibaba (9988 HK) as overvalued versus the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), with the difference between implied volatility and option premium at historically high levels.

Highlight: An actionable trade setup — long HSI calls vs. short Alibaba calls — that captures relative value and introduces leverage through a ratio structure.

Why Read: This is a timely opportunity to combine a directional view with favorable volatility dynamics, offering asymmetric payoff potential.


Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. </li>
<li>Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.</li>
<li>November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. </li>
</ul>


Major markets are in a waiting game with vols not monetizing yet implied holding up with US FOMC and the election this week. 
Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) , Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) have elevated implied vols vs average historical observations for November.
November typically sees strong price performance, particularly in the 3rd week, leading to softer historic vols in that time frame. 


EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.</li>
<li>The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.</li>
<li>The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. &lt;17718.61.
The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).


EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Along with its fiscal 2024 results, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.</li>
<li>If the conversion is completed by the end of August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.</li>
<li>We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> capped at 8% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.


Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

Alibaba IV is still about twice HSI IV, keeping the opportunity open for an asymmetrical relative value trade. Traders bearish on the HSI or...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Alibaba (9988 HK) Vs. Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX): Relative Value Options Play with Leverage

Alibaba IV is still about twice HSI IV, keeping the opportunity open for an asymmetrical relative value trade. Traders bearish on the HSI or...

Gaudenz Schneider

EQD | Asia November Vol Roadmap - The Waiting Game

​Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

John Ley

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July's Close Is Negative)

​The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...

Nico Rosti

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

Alibaba expect to convert to a Primary Listing on the HKEX by end August. That could mean inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect in September. With...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-Connecting the Dots

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

Major markets are not monetizing, with US FOMC and election impacting implied vols. Hang Seng, Shanghai Shenzhen, and Nikkei 225 have elevated...

The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but seasonal pattern model predicts August will close up if July closes down. The index is...