Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> closed last week down (CC=-1) at 16340.41, it is now down 5 months in a row (CC=-5), very OVERSOLD. </li>
<li>If this week the index keeps going down, it may find support soon and bounce next week. The alternative scenario is a longer correction, 2 weeks.</li>
<li>Support for a LONG trade, possibly pushed by a MONTHLY reversal,  should be found between 16200 and 15950: this is a highly speculative setup given the stubborn downtrend.</li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX closed last week down (CC=-1) at 16340.41, it is now down 5 months in a row (CC=-5), very OVERSOLD. 
If this week the index keeps going down, it may find support soon and bounce next week. The alternative scenario is a longer correction, 2 weeks.
Support for a LONG trade, possibly pushed by a MONTHLY reversal,  should be found between 16200 and 15950: this is a highly speculative setup given the stubborn downtrend.


EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

Senior Equity Derivatives Trader

Simon Harris

<ul>
<li>Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets</li>
<li>Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days</li>
<li>We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces</li>
</ul>


Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

EQD | The LONG Case for the Hang Seng Index

​The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...

Nico Rosti

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades-And Pivot!

A weekly look at spot, vol and skew changes across 8 global Indices. We analyse the changes and try to identify the best trades based on the vol...

Simon Harris

The HSI INDEX closed down for the 5th consecutive month, very oversold condition. Our pattern models say it may find support and bounce in 1-2...