Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.</li>
<li>Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon (AMZN US)</a> is actually oversold (buy opportunity). </li>
<li>The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold. 
</li>
</ul>


A look at our probabilistic tactical models for US and Asian Equities: comparing which stocks are overbought and which ones are oversold.
Between the US Stocks we track, all seems to have room to rally, short-term, and Amazon (AMZN US) is actually oversold (buy opportunity). 
The Asian Stocks we track instead show a less homogeneous picture, but several Asian stocks are incredibly overbought. Same as Gold. 



Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.</li>
<li>Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.</li>
<li>We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.</li>
</ul>


Single stock options showed early signs of stress, with both volumes and implied vols moving higher as Put trading outpaced Calls.
Breadth was weak across single names, with only 3 of 11 sectors trading higher.
We provide a table of earnings events for the week ahead.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong equities erased last week’s gains, with further losses on Monday likely after Trump’s social media post Friday morning.</li>
<li>Weakness was not widespread, though there was a sharp reversal in breadth week over week.</li>
<li>Option volumes and ratios suggest there’s little concern in the market at this point.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong equities erased last week’s gains, with further losses on Monday likely after Trump’s social media post Friday morning.
Weakness was not widespread, though there was a sharp reversal in breadth week over week.
Option volumes and ratios suggest there’s little concern in the market at this point.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 06 – 10): Options Calm But Stormy Seas Ahead

<ul>
<li>In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hang-seng-index-hsi-tactical-outlook-small-pulback-or-large-pullback" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight dedicated to the Hang Seng Index</a> we formulated a key question: is this going to be a small pullback or a large pullback? 
</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> pulled back just for 1 week, small pullback, our models were reset. But this week the index pulled back again, almost reaching Q2 support (mildly oversold).</li>
<li>Then, on Friday, Trump tweeted something against China, after the Asian markets closed and all hell broke loose. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a> Oct. futures tanked to 25300. Let's discuss support zones...</li>
</ul>


In our previous insight dedicated to the Hang Seng Index we formulated a key question: is this going to be a small pullback or a large pullback? 

The HSI pulled back just for 1 week, small pullback, our models were reset. But this week the index pulled back again, almost reaching Q2 support (mildly oversold).
Then, on Friday, Trump tweeted something against China, after the Asian markets closed and all hell broke loose. The HSI Oct. futures tanked to 25300. Let's discuss support zones...


HSI Tactical Outlook: Maybe It Is a Large Pullback...

<ul>
<li>HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity</li>
<li>Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.</li>
<li>We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.</li>
</ul>


HSI extended gains to fresh highs, supported by strong breadth, surging Materials and IT names, and rising single stock option activity
Broad gains across all sectors highlighted strong momentum, with leadership from Materials and Information Technology.
We examine the distribution of returns since the April lows finding that the tails are distinctly unbalanced.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 06 – 10): Options Calm But Stormy Seas Ahead

Hong Kong equities finished the week on a down note which was exacerbated Friday morning in the North American markets with U.S. President Trump...

John Ley

HSI Tactical Outlook: Maybe It Is a Large Pullback...

Analysis of the Hang Seng Index support/entry zones: where to buy after the sell-off triggered by Friday's Trump tweets against China. This bout...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

HSI extended its rally with broad-based gains, sector leadership from Materials and IT, and option activity climbing to the high end of its range.

John Ley

Cross-Market Outlook: US Vs Asia — Who’s Overbought, Who’s Oversold?

​Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 13 – 17): Option Stress Builds, Breadth Weakens

​Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...

John Ley

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Oct 06 – 10): Options Calm But Stormy Seas Ahead

Hong Kong equities finished the week on a down note which was exacerbated Friday morning in the North American markets with U.S. President Trump...

John Ley

HSI Tactical Outlook: Maybe It Is a Large Pullback...

​Analysis of the Hang Seng Index support/entry zones: where to buy after the sell-off triggered by Friday's Trump tweets against China. This bout...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options (Sept 29 – Oct 03): Materials and IT Lead Amid Rising Option Activity

HSI extended its rally with broad-based gains, sector leadership from Materials and IT, and option activity climbing to the high end of its range.

John Ley

Probabilistic tactical models show Asian stocks and Gold are incredibly overbought if compared to US stocks: the latter have still room to rally...

Single stock options are showing signs of stress as Put trading surpasses Calls, while only 3 of 11 sectors are trading higher. Upcoming earnings...

Analysis of the Hang Seng Index support/entry zones: where to buy after the sell-off triggered by Friday's Trump tweets against China. This bout...