Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> </li>
<li>
Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.</li>
</ul>



Context: Some of Hong Kong’s largest and most prominent companies will report in the coming days, representing 20% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) 

Highlight: This Insight quantifies option-implied swings which serve as a gauge for post-earnings reactions.

Why Read: Prepare for a busy earnings week by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.


Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 changes for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December. Announcement is on 21 November with implementation at the close on 5 December.
The forecast adds have moved higher over the last few months and handily outperformed the forecast deletes and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX). 
There has been aggressive short covering in the forecast adds and there could be more in stocks where short interest is still a high percentage of float.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.</li>
<li>Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.</li>
<li>Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.</li>
</ul>


Pop Mart options recently began trading on HKEX and have gained considerable traction, ranking in the top 10 of volume traded.
Pop Mart has had a tremendous rally but is in the midst of a double-digit slump.
Option volumes have been skewed, and we outline how best to approach hedging in this environment.


Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seres-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29951:1" rel="noopener">Seres Group (601127 CH)</a> could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.</li>
<li>There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.</li>
<li>Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.</li>
</ul>



Seres Group (601127 CH) could raise up to HK$17.4bn (US$2.24bn) in its H-share listing if the Offer Size Adjustment Option and the Overallotment Option are both exercised.
There is a big allocation to cornerstone investors that is locked up for 6 months. That eliminates the already small possibility of Fast Entry inclusion to global indexes.
Seres (9927 HK) should be added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 1 December following the end of the Price Stabilisation period.


Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

<ul>
<li>
Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI)</a>.</li>
<li>
Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.</li>
</ul>



Context: Several of Hong Kong’s largest companies will report in the coming days, representing 27% of the Hang Seng Index (HSI).

Highlight: This Insight identifies which stocks have option-implied swings deviating from historical averages.

Why Read: Prepare for earnings season by understanding where single-stock and broader market volatility may be elevated.


BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Earnings Volatility Preview: Options Price Sharp Swings in China Tech Earnings Week

Option markets hint at sharp post-earnings reactions in some of China's top tech companies. Prepare for elevated volatility.

Gaudenz Schneider

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: 3 Changes as Adds Go Up, Up & Away

There could be 3 changes for the HSCEI in Dec. Estimated turnover is 4% and round-trip trade is HK$5.15bn. Shorts have been covering in the...

Brian Freitas

Pop Mart (9992.HK): Options Activity Builds as the Rally Cools

The launch of Pop Mart options has sparked brisk trading against the backdrop of a stock that is in the midst of a double-digit decline after a...

John Ley

Seres (9927 HK): Index Inclusion Timeline for a Max Offering of US$2.2bn; Big Discount to A-Shares

Seres could raise US$2.2bn in its HK IPO. Inclusion in Southbound Connect from 1 Dec. Global index and FXI inclusions in June and August next year....

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) And JD.com (9618 HK) Lead Expected Swings as 27% of HSI Reports Before Month-End

Spot the Swing: Some of Hong Kong’s biggest names — HSBC, Ping An, Bank of China, ICBC, China Construction Bank, BYD, and AIA Group — report this...

Gaudenz Schneider