Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> has been rallying +37% since its plunge to 19260 on April 7th. It is +6% higher than its previous high in mid-March.</li>
<li>The sentiment towards the index remains positive lately, and our model indicates the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>  is a bit overbought but could go higher.
</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> starts to be toppish around 26874 (75% prob. of reversal). Covering past that point is not a bad idea, especially if the index is up 3-4 weeks.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) has been rallying +37% since its plunge to 19260 on April 7th. It is +6% higher than its previous high in mid-March.
The sentiment towards the index remains positive lately, and our model indicates the HSI  is a bit overbought but could go higher.

The HSI INDEX starts to be toppish around 26874 (75% prob. of reversal). Covering past that point is not a bad idea, especially if the index is up 3-4 weeks.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

<ul>
<li>Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.</li>
<li>Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.</li>
<li>Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.</li>
</ul>


Market breadth remained weak as option activity slowed and speculation concerns lingered around speculative trading.
Option demand cooled, led by waning interest in Calls, while heavyweights in Consumer Discretionary kept overall volumes supported.
Trading momentum slowed, but sector heavyweights maintained dominance, with implied vols drifting lower across much of the market.


Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market</li>
<li>Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal</li>
<li>A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets</li>
</ul>


The current macro environment has elements of both the 1970's and mid-2000s commodity bull market
Investor interest and allocation to this asset class is still minimal
A rising cost of capital globally favours a move out of long duration into real assets


2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

<ul>
<li>A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 - August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.</li>
<li>
OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">ASX 200 INDEX</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index </a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>.</li>
<li>
OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meta-platforms-inc-class-a-facebook" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Meta (META US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A quick synoptic look at the tactical setups for the indices, stocks, commodities and bonds we cover, for the week August 25 - August 29. .XLSX MODEL DATA FILE ATTACHED.

OVERBOUGHT at the WEEKLY Close: Alphabet, S&amp;P 500 INDEX , Tesla , China Mobile (941 HK) , Toyota Motor (7203 JP) , ASX 200 INDEX , CSI 300 Index , HSI INDEX.

OVERSOLD at the WEEKLY Close: Meta (META US) , Softbank Group (9984 JP).


Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas</a> has highlighted in his August 18th's insight the details of what to expect in the upcoming, September 5, index rebalance for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> .</li>
<li>The HSI started a modest pullback this week, outlook for the index remains bullish, this insight will try to determine both buy-the-dip and profit targets areas for the coming weeks.</li>
<li>
We have attached at the end of the insight an Excel file with all our price and time model's data for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a>. Check it out.</li>
</ul>



Brian Freitas has highlighted in his August 18th's insight the details of what to expect in the upcoming, September 5, index rebalance for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) .
The HSI started a modest pullback this week, outlook for the index remains bullish, this insight will try to determine both buy-the-dip and profit targets areas for the coming weeks.

We have attached at the end of the insight an Excel file with all our price and time model's data for the HSI INDEX. Check it out.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Hong Kong option volumes eased with weak breadth and cooling Call demand against a backdrop of weak seasonals and growing concerns around...

John Ley

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

WEEKLY analysis of tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for August 25-29. Several overbought conditions in US and Asia...

Nico Rosti

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance

The upcoming, Sep25, HSI rebalance will be announced this Friday, the outlook for the index remains bullish, we highlight buy-the-dip areas for...

Nico Rosti

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Profit Targets: Has The Rally Topped?

​The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...

Nico Rosti

Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (Sep 01–05): Option Activity Eases, Speculation In Focus

Hong Kong option volumes eased with weak breadth and cooling Call demand against a backdrop of weak seasonals and growing concerns around...

John Ley

2026 High Conviction Idea: Our Basket of Commodity Equities Will Outperform Broad Equity Indices

Why a basket of commodity producers provide a good risk reward for any portfolio looking to get a real return. Underowned and unloved!

Rikki Malik

Global Markets Tactical Outlook WEEKLY: August 25 – August 29

WEEKLY analysis of tactical setups for indices, stocks, commodities, and bonds for August 25-29. Several overbought conditions in US and Asia...

Nico Rosti

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Outlook Ahead of Sep25 Rebalance

​The upcoming, Sep25, HSI rebalance will be announced this Friday, the outlook for the index remains bullish, we highlight buy-the-dip areas for...

Nico Rosti

The HSI has surged +37% since its early April lows. Sentiment is positive, but our model says "overbought". Additional, limited gains are possible...

The upcoming, Sep25, HSI rebalance will be announced this Friday, the outlook for the index remains bullish, we highlight buy-the-dip areas for...