Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.</li>
<li>Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.</li>
<li>Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.</li>
</ul>


Tencent has rallied 17.29% off the April low—against this backdrop, we analyze implied vol, the earnings-implied jump, and post-earnings price patterns.
Relative to past earnings cycles, current implied vol screens lower across multiple timeframes and spread metrics.
Post-Earnings price behavior reveals some non-intuitive dynamics worthy of consideration.


Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a> ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> could be added to the index while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13363:1" rel="noopener">Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)</a> could be deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the June rebalance of the HSCEI ended on 31 March, the results will be announced on 16 May and will be implemented on 6 June.

Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There are other stocks with big flows due to a change in the FreeFloat-Adjusted Factor (FAF) methodology for Secondary Listings that will be implemented from the rebalance in June.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Autos /In Depth: U.S. tariffs rattle global auto industry</li><li>China-U.S. /: China, U.S. to hold trade talks in Switzerland this week</li><li>Law /: China revises infectious disease law to better protect individual rights</li></ul>

Autos /In Depth: U.S. tariffs rattle global auto industryChina-U.S. /: China, U.S. to hold trade talks in Switzerland this weekLaw /: China revises infectious disease law to better protect individual rights

CX Daily: China Unveils Monetary Support to Stem U.S. Tariff Impact 

Event-Driven

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL H-shares</a> with a discount of up to 10% to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.</li>
<li>The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.</li>
<li>Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.</li>
</ul>


Reports continue to indicate a US$5bn raise for CATL H-shares with a discount of up to 10% to CATL (300750 CH) and with cornerstone investors taking up half the deal.
The company is currently gauging investor demand. The IPO could open next week and the H-shares could list later this month.
Index Fast Entry largely depends on the cornerstone investor allocation. Float higher than 50%/60% is required for Fast Entry to global indices.


CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

<ul>
<li>Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).</li>
<li>There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weibo-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35280:1" rel="noopener">Weibo (9898 HK)</a> will have passives buying, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc-2d526675-c878-4104-840f-87fed1735e85" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35652:1" rel="noopener">NIO (9866 HK)</a> switches to a sell.</li>
</ul>


Most Secondary-listed companies have announced the number of shares that underlie ADRs and are held by the ADR depositaries as of end-March (or around that time).
There are some significant increases in the number of shares held by the ADR depositaries. That changes the free float for the stocks and consequently the estimated flows.

NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK), Baidu (9888 HK) and Weibo (9898 HK) will have passives buying, while NIO (9866 HK) switches to a sell.


Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Pop Mart could replace Sunny Optical in the index. There will be inflows for NetEase, Trip.com and Baidu due to a FAF methodology change. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: China Unveils Monetary Support to Stem U.S. Tariff Impact

TOP STORIES Autos / In Depth: U. S. tariffs rattle global auto industry At an October campaign rally in Michigan, then-presidential candidate...

Caixin Global

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

CATL is said to be raising US$5bn at a single digit discount with half the deal allocated to cornerstones. Listing could take place late May. Index...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

Tencent (700.HK) Q1 Earnings: Volatility Setup and Post-Release Price Behavior

​Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...

John Ley

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace Sunny Optical (2382 HK)

Pop Mart could replace Sunny Optical in the index. There will be inflows for NetEase, Trip.com and Baidu due to a FAF methodology change. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: China Unveils Monetary Support to Stem U.S. Tariff Impact

TOP STORIES Autos / In Depth: U. S. tariffs rattle global auto industry At an October campaign rally in Michigan, then-presidential candidate...

Caixin Global

CATL (300750 CH): Index Inclusion as Potential Listing Nears

CATL is said to be raising US$5bn at a single digit discount with half the deal allocated to cornerstones. Listing could take place late May. Index...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Indexes: ADR Depositary Holding Changes; Round-Trip Trade Is US$5.1bn; NetEase Outperforms

ADR depositary holding changes alter FAFs and flows. Estimated round-trip trade is US$5.1bn now. NetEase has outperformed the HSCI by 15.5% since...

Brian Freitas

Tencent's upcoming Q1 earnings and recent rally prompts analysis of implied volatility, earnings jumps, and post-earnings price patterns, showing...