Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Yesterday after the close of trading, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hongkong-land-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15465:1" rel="noopener">Hongkong Land (HKL SP)</a> <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/HKLH0906.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=682657" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022.
As the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in HKL’s constitution, any shares repurchased will be canceled.
Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. That's pretty meaningful.
Jardine evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.
At a ~68% discount its NAV of US$14.75 (as at 30 June) - even after today's move - HKL is cheap. Jardines think so too.
Buy on any weakness.

Yesterday after the close of trading, Hongkong Land (HKL SP) announced a US$500mn share buyback program, which will run until 31st December 2022.
As the holding of treasury shares is not permitted in HKL’s constitution, any shares repurchased will be canceled.
Based on the average daily volume over the last year of US$9-10mn, this buyback is roughly equivalent to ~15% of daily volume through to 2022 year-end. That's pretty meaningful.
Jardine evidently believes it makes good business sense to buy back its own shares in place of deploying capital into HKL's investment and development property portfolio.
At a ~68% discount its NAV of US$14.75 (as at 30 June) - even after today's move - HKL is cheap. Jardines think so too.
Buy on any weakness.

Event-Driven

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This week in StubWorld ...
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>, relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a>, is around record-lows outside the Covid-affect low last year. This is occurring amid recent corporate developments within the Jardine stable of companies.
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Preceding my comments on JCNC are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
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These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.
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This week in StubWorld ...



Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP), relative to Astra International (ASII IJ), is around record-lows outside the Covid-affect low last year. This is occurring amid recent corporate developments within the Jardine stable of companies.



Preceding my comments on JCNC are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


In my prior insight <a href="https://skr.ma/h4f6C" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent</a> on the 29 April, I thought <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> was unattractive at a 13% discount to NAV, plus near-term news may focus on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>'s dissension rights, and Matheson's potential exposure thereon.
Matheson is down ~15% since that note (while the Straits Times Index is down ~4%). 
Since that insight, Matheson released its <a href="https://www.jardines.com/assets/files/NewsAndEvents/corporate-press-releases/jardine-matheson/int21.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interim results</a>, which not only provided clarity on the net debt at the parent level, which was largely guesswork amid the Matheson/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> circularity; but also unlisted stub ops - especially Jardine Motors - performed exceptionally in the 1H21.
At a ~23% discount to NAV on adjusted historical NAVs, value is emerging. Yet Matheson is not an obvious buy here.
More below the fold.

In my prior insight Jardine Matheson: Lessons in Dissent on the 29 April, I thought Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) was unattractive at a 13% discount to NAV, plus near-term news may focus on Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)'s dissension rights, and Matheson's potential exposure thereon.
Matheson is down ~15% since that note (while the Straits Times Index is down ~4%). 
Since that insight, Matheson released its interim results, which not only provided clarity on the net debt at the parent level, which was largely guesswork amid the Matheson/Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) circularity; but also unlisted stub ops - especially Jardine Motors - performed exceptionally in the 1H21.
At a ~23% discount to NAV on adjusted historical NAVs, value is emerging. Yet Matheson is not an obvious buy here.
More below the fold. 

Jardine Matheson: Value Gradually Emerging Four Months On

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

*Better, But Weak Metrics: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported a positive FY 2H21 bottom-line result of HKD 5.3 bn, increasing HKD 9.4 bn over the HKD 4.1 bn in losses posted in FY 1H21. However, when we exclude Link’s non-cash FV marks of HKD 2.0 bn, operating performance cam in at just HKD 3.3 bn – improving just HKD 143 mn (4.5%) HOH. The positive HOH operating performance was driven by an increase in revenues from mainland China and overseas related property;  *Worries Remain In Hong Kong: Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 2H21, albeit slightly improving from a negative 2.6% in FY 1H21 to a negative 1.8%. Although not a enormous surprise, this trend would appear to be with us for an extended period in Hong Kong - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with deals that make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling.

*Better, But Weak Metrics: Link REIT (823.HK) [Link REIT] reported a positive FY 2H21 bottom-line result of HKD 5.3 bn, increasing HKD 9.4 bn over the HKD 4.1 bn in losses posted in FY 1H21. However, when we exclude Link’s non-cash FV marks of HKD 2.0 bn, operating performance cam in at just HKD 3.3 bn – improving just HKD 143 mn (4.5%) HOH. The positive HOH operating performance was driven by an increase in revenues from mainland China and overseas related property;  *Worries Remain In Hong Kong: Hong Kong retail portfolio's rental reversion rate continued to be challenged YOY in FY 2H21, albeit slightly improving from a negative 2.6% in FY 1H21 to a negative 1.8%. Although not a enormous surprise, this trend would appear to be with us for an extended period in Hong Kong - especially given the continued border closures amid the COVID-19 disruption; and*Poor Capital Management Becoming A Big Problem: Link management also appears hellbent on destroying shareholder value with deals that make little financial sense. Link recently announced the acquisition of Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou where the current annualized NPI yield barely covering the project’s cost of funding. In order to improve occupancy, it would appear that Link would likely need to offering significant tenant enticements, and investment massively in asset enhancement. Bizarrely instead of weighing buybacks return versus new investment ROI, management views share buybacks as a mechanism to defend shares against short-selling.

Link REIT – Hong Kong “Stabilizing”

Jardine Strategic Holdings / Event-Driven

Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a>'s surprise <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/JMH%20J.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=651169" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> on the 8 March to acquire the 15.11% in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a> it does not own, Strategic has now released its <a href="https://data.fca.org.uk/artefacts/NSM/Portal/NI-000021381/NI-000021381.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">circular</a> to shareholders.
The special general meeting (SGM) will be held on the 12 April at 8AM - in Bermuda. 
There is no independent financial advisor casting an opinion on the fairness of the Offer consideration. The circular simply echoes that the Strategic's transaction committee unanimously recommends that independent Strategic shareholders vote in favour of the Amalgamation resolution at the SGM.
Dissenters' rights are discussed in detail, for those shareholders who are not satisfied they are being offered a fair value. 
Some granularity on the shareholder structure of Matheson, as it pertains to the Keswick family, is provided, but it is not comprehensive.
This is a done deal. Cheques are expected to be despatched on the 28 April.
More below the fold.

Following Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)'s surprise announcement on the 8 March to acquire the 15.11% in Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP) it does not own, Strategic has now released its circular to shareholders.
The special general meeting (SGM) will be held on the 12 April at 8AM - in Bermuda. 
There is no independent financial advisor casting an opinion on the fairness of the Offer consideration. The circular simply echoes that the Strategic's transaction committee unanimously recommends that independent Strategic shareholders vote in favour of the Amalgamation resolution at the SGM.
Dissenters' rights are discussed in detail, for those shareholders who are not satisfied they are being offered a fair value. 
Some granularity on the shareholder structure of Matheson, as it pertains to the Keswick family, is provided, but it is not comprehensive.
This is a done deal. Cheques are expected to be despatched on the 28 April.
More below the fold. 

Hong Kong

Hongkong Land is a major listed property investment, management and development group. 

The Group owns and manages more than 850,000 sq. m. of prime office and luxury retail property in key Asian cities, principally in Hong Kong, Singapore, Beijing and Jakarta.  The Group also has a number of high quality residential, commercial, and mixed-use projects under development in cities across Greater China and Southeast Asia.  In Singapore, its subsidiary, MCL Land, is a well-established residential developer.  

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited is incorporated in Bermuda and has a standard listing on the London Stock Exchange, with secondary listings in Bermuda and Singapore.  The Group’s assets and investments are managed from Hong Kong by Hongkong Land Limited.  Hongkong Land is a member of the Jardine Matheson Group.

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Hongkong Land (HKL SP)

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David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: JCNC Is A Set-Up Here

Jardines appear to be increasingly more proactive on the corporate front of late. Not being a UK listing, JCNC is unlikely to be tabled a derisory...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson: Value Gradually Emerging Four Months On

Collapsing the circularity and removing its complexity should drive interest in Matheson. And holdings like HKL are cheap at 0.3x P/B. The pushback...

David Blennerhassett

Link REIT – Hong Kong “Stabilizing”

LINK REIT: Link operating results only improved 4.5% HOH, driven by mainland China and overseas. Hong Kong retail portfolio remains a challenge, as...

Thomas J. Monaco

Jardine Strategic: SGM On The 12 April

I would avoid both Strategic and Matheson. I like Mandarin Oriental at a 0.6x P/B - and book value is not market value. HKL is inexpensive at 0.3x...

David Blennerhassett

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