Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)</li>
<li>As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.</li>
<li>We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) continue to hold above short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs (currently 5966 on SPX, $526.50 on QQQ, $208.75 on IWM)
As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4/22/25 Compass remains intact.
We will need to see breakdowns below 20-day MA supports in order to expect any meaningful near-term downside.


20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 21st January 2025, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wh-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13200:1" rel="noopener">WH Group (288 HK)</a>, the world's largest pork producer, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0121/2025012100994.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.</li>
<li>A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. </li>
<li>
Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.</li>
</ul>


On the 21st January 2025, WH Group (288 HK), the world's largest pork producer, announced Smithfield had made a public filing of the "Preliminary Prospectus" with the SEC.
A US$23-US$27/share indicative price range backed out a possible market cap for Smithfield of US$9.0bn-US$10.6bn, at the high end of my estimate, and more than twice its 2013 privatisation value. 

Reportedly,  WHG are now guiding that Smithfield is likely to be priced at $20/share. Expect WHG to sell off here.


WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Smithfield Foods / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company is seeking a market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b based on the $23-$27 range. </li>
<li>A high end pricing for Smithfield values the company at roughly 13.5x this year's earnings, a sizable discount to comps Hormel Foods (about 21x) and Tyson Foods (26x).</li>
<li>It is our opinion that the business model is well-rounded, resilient and stable with multiple-organic growth levers.</li>
</ul>


The company is seeking a market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b based on the $23-$27 range. 
A high end pricing for Smithfield values the company at roughly 13.5x this year's earnings, a sizable discount to comps Hormel Foods (about 21x) and Tyson Foods (26x).
It is our opinion that the business model is well-rounded, resilient and stable with multiple-organic growth levers.


Smithfield Foods (SFD): IPO Provides a Compelling Discount to Industry Peers

<ul>
<li>Spin-Off of WH Group's could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range</li>
<li>The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut</li>
<li>Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)</li>
</ul>


Spin-Off of WH Group's could raise up to $939 million if priced at the high-end of the range
The IPO is set to price on Monday January 27th for a Tuesday, January 28th debut
Flash numbers revealed sales for the three months ended December 29, 2024 will range from $3,873 million to $3,953 million (prev. year $3,998 million)


Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group's Spin-Off

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Hormel Foods Corporation reported a robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal 2024, exhibiting a mixture of strengths across various segments and some challenges, particularly in the retail andinternational sectors.</li><li>Starting with the positives, Hormel continued to witness healthy performance across its key retail brands.</li><li>Brands such as Hormel Black Label Bacon, SPAM luncheon meats, and Skippy peanut butter exhibited strong growth, emphasizing successful consumer engagement and brand strength.</li></ul>

Hormel Foods Corporation reported a robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal 2024, exhibiting a mixture of strengths across various segments and some challenges, particularly in the retail andinternational sectors.Starting with the positives, Hormel continued to witness healthy performance across its key retail brands.Brands such as Hormel Black Label Bacon, SPAM luncheon meats, and Skippy peanut butter exhibited strong growth, emphasizing successful consumer engagement and brand strength.

Hormel Foods Corporation: Acquisition of Cidade do Sol & Retail Expansion Are Key Developments With A Future Impact! - Major Drivers

United States

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

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Hormel Foods (HRL US)

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

A US$10bn market cap for Smithfield was punchy. Reportedly, the feedback from investors think likewise. Dumbing down the bottom end of the price...

David Blennerhassett

Smithfield Foods (SFD): IPO Provides a Compelling Discount to Industry Peers

Company seeking market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b with $23-$27 range, high end pricing values at 13.5x earnings, strong and stable business model with...

IPO Boutique

Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group's Spin-Off

WH Group's spin-off IPO could raise $939 million, set to debut on January 28th, set terms for its upcoming IPO on Tuesday morning.

IPO Boutique

Hormel Foods Corporation: Acquisition of Cidade do Sol & Retail Expansion Are Key Developments With A Future Impact! - Major Drivers

Hormel Foods Corporation reported a robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal 2024, exhibiting a mixture of strengths across various...

Baptista Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

20-Day MA Supports Holding on SPX, QQQ, IWM; Bullish Outlook Intact

20-Day MA Supports Holding on $SPX, $QQQ, and $IWM. As long as 20-day MA supports hold, our near-term bullish outlook that we have had since our 4...

Vermilion Research

WH Group (288 HK) Is Stretched As Smithfield Mulls IPO Price Reduction

A US$10bn market cap for Smithfield was punchy. Reportedly, the feedback from investors think likewise. Dumbing down the bottom end of the price...

David Blennerhassett

Smithfield Foods (SFD): IPO Provides a Compelling Discount to Industry Peers

​Company seeking market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b with $23-$27 range, high end pricing values at 13.5x earnings, strong and stable business model with...

IPO Boutique

Smithfield Foods (SFD): Terms Set for WH Group's Spin-Off

​WH Group's spin-off IPO could raise $939 million, set to debut on January 28th, set terms for its upcoming IPO on Tuesday morning.

IPO Boutique

Hormel Foods Corporation: Acquisition of Cidade do Sol & Retail Expansion Are Key Developments With A Future Impact! - Major Drivers

Hormel Foods Corporation reported a robust performance in its third quarter of fiscal 2024, exhibiting a mixture of strengths across various...

Baptista Research

Company seeking market cap of $9.1b-$10.7b with $23-$27 range, high end pricing values at 13.5x earnings, strong and stable business model with...

WH Group's spin-off IPO could raise $939 million, set to debut on January 28th, set terms for its upcoming IPO on Tuesday morning.