'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/966/original/2020-05-08_05-43-09.png?1588884207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131966"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/970/original/File%202020-05-07%204%2029%2028.jpeg?1588886994" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131970"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation Lab</div>THE ROAD TO ZERO - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/971/original/2020-05-08_06-52-52.png?1588888396" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131971"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THE OTHER SHOE? - The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an Insight on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/131/972/original/2020-05-08_06-59-20.png?1588888777" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="131972"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>In the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>.

Source • Japan Analytics7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative. Our cap-weighted aggregate Results &amp; Revision Score continues to decline, reaching a fresh three-year low.  A new ten-year low will follow next week, which we expect will curb any upside enthusiasm.Source • SUTD Data-Driven Innovation LabTHE ROAD TO ZERO - Having extended the nationwide state of emergency, the Japanese government is already relaxing restrictions in less-affected prefectures and has hinted that the measures limited activity in the remainder could be lifted before the end of the month. A simulation by the Singapore University of Technology and Design's Data-Driven Innovation Lab suggests that the goal of zero daily new confirmed new cases could be reached as early as 8th June. Testing is now being ramped up as the bureaucratic 'hurdles' are being overcome, and overly-strict preconditions have been relaxed. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the extension are such that a second supplementary budget and an easing of the requirements for business interruption subsidies will be necessary.Source • Japan AnalyticsTHE OTHER SHOE? - The strength of the yen against the US Dollar and by extension against most emerging market currencies is a factor that has received less attention but has a bearing on the earnings of many Japanese exporters. We are preparing an Insight on the likely impact and those companies whose absolute and relative share prices are most and least correlated.Source • Japan AnalyticsIn the DETAIL below, we shall review the results, revisions and initial forecast announcements made by larger-cap companies yesterday.  On another relatively quiet day, the balance between positive/neutral/negative of the 51 results announcements was 15:6:30. The average change in Score was -83. For the 29 revisions/initial forecasts, the split was 11:1:17  and the average Score was -2. Of the 32 companies declaring full-year results, just nine made interim or annual forecasts for the current year. Two hundred twenty-three companies will announce today, the largest of which by market capitalisation will be Hoya (7741 JP), Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP), and Itochu (8001 JP). 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/403/original/2020-02-18_08-44-22.png?1581983074" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118403"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/404/original/2020-02-18_08-42-56.png?1581983098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118404"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>THREE-YEAR LOW - With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bridgestone-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8914:1" rel="noopener">Bridgestone (5108 JP)</a>'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/405/original/2020-02-18_09-29-28.png?1581985792" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118405"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>LEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-<ul>
<li>Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.</li>
<li>The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.</li>
<li>The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.</li>
<li>
All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.
<hr>
• SECTOR SCORES •
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/118/410/original/2020-02-18_09-55-29.png?1581987489" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="118410"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 
</li>
</ul>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our Results Sore - the lowest since March 2017.  In contrast, the Forecast/Revision Score reached a three-month high as the 470 companies with December year-ends put an optimistic gloss on their medium-term outlook. As we have noted in our recent daily roundups, a normal precondition for a cycle low is for the Forecast/Revision Score to rise above the Results Score. Forecast/Revision Score peaks and troughs usually occur one to two quarters ahead of those for the Results Score.  Covid-19's impact will likely see the 2016 'playbook' repeated next quarter with a lower Results Score and a 'sideways' Forecast/Results Score. The Results Score cycle low point will be reached with the mostly-interim results to be released in six months. Source • Japan AnalyticsLEADING INDICATOR - By including several momentum factors into our Scoring (see below), we can provide a better indication of future business conditions. Indeed there is a 0.83 correlation between the Cabinet Office's Business Condition Leading Indicator and the Forecast/Revision Score. Reported earnings, as well as company forecasts, are lagging indicators and, as shown in Part 1 of this Insight. Both data series peaked one year after our Scores and the market peaked in early 2018. SCORING METHODOLOGY - For those new to these Insights, we briefly recap our scoring methodology below:-
Results Scores are calculated using the most recent eight quarters of company data for Revenues, Operating Income and Operating Margin and, for each, measure the rate, degree and consistency of change. The Results Score has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period. Our data series commences from the time a particular company issues quarterly results. The sample size becomes significant from March 2005.
The Forecast/Revision Score is based on both Annual and Interim period company forecasts and compares changes from previous forecasts as well as against the trailing twelve-month (TTM) or previous first-half results, with annual forecasts being double-weighted. This Score also has a maximum of +30 and a minimum of -30 for each period.  For this series, our data samples start from August 2008.
The combined Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) is the average of the Results Score and the Forecasts/Revision Score.

All company Scores are then cap-weight-aggregated into Sector, Peer Group and Market Composite Scores for which the seventeen-year monthly and two-year daily track records are shown above. Only currently listed-companies are covered in the aggregate Scores, and the Total Market Capitalisation excludes delisted entities. REITs are not included.

• SECTOR SCORES •
Source • Japan Analytics
In the DETAIL Section below, we provide a detailed breakdown of our RRS Scoring for Sectors, Peer Groups and individual companies, highlighting this quarter's 'winners' and 'losers'. The chart above shows a  seventeen-year 'timeline' of the cap-weight-aggregated Sector RRS Scores and the ebbs and flows around the business cycles. The Metals Sector is the most volatile on the downside and has yet to 'bottom' this cycle. Technology Hardware appears to have already rebounded; however, Covid-19 suggests this Sector may relapse. On the upside, the Information Technology Sector has replaced the Internet and Telecoms Sectors as the contra-cyclical 'champion'. 



🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/367/original/2020-02-05_03-43-39.png?1580847984" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116367"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12933:1" rel="noopener">Kao (4452 JP)</a> although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.<hr>• SECTOR TIMELINE •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/368/original/2020-02-05_03-47-58.png?1580848469" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116368"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR TIMELINE - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya (7741 JP)</a>'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeda-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11747:1" rel="noopener">Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP)</a> helped Healthcare tick up, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/systena-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20438:1" rel="noopener">Systena (2317 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-techno-solutions-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2431:1" rel="noopener">Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP)</a>.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20799:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui (8031 JP)</a> 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.

Source • Japan Analytics4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new three-year low, although the Score is still positive. The Forecast/REvision Score added 13bps helped by Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) and Kao (4452 JP) although the latter's forecast is optimistic as we discuss in the DETAIL below.• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - Hoya (7741 JP)'s results were the largest factor in the decline in the Other Commerical Products Sector. Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) helped Healthcare tick up, while Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) fuelled the strong recovery in the Banks Sector.  Systena (2317 JP) and NTT Data (9613 JP) added to the erosion of the Information Technology Sector's lead, although partially offset by Itochu Techno Solutions (4739 JP).  Mitsui (8031 JP) 21% yoy decline in Q3 Net Income continued to downtrend in the Wholesale Sector's Score.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lenskart-solutions-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45634:1" rel="noopener">Lenskart Solutions (LENSKART IN)</a> (LS) raised around US$825m in its India IPO in November 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Lenskart Solutions (LENSKART IN) (LS) raised around US$825m in its India IPO in November 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
Lenskart Solutions Limited (LSL) is a technology-driven eyewear company with integrated operations spanning designing, manufacturing, branding and retailing of eyewear products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Lenskart Lockup Expiry - US$6.7bn Lockup Release with Everyone Well in the Money

Japan

Hoya Corp manufactures electro-optics products such as mask blanks for semiconductors, photomasks for LCD panels, optical glasses, glass memory disks for HDDs, medical flexible endoscopes, eyeglasses, and contact lenses. The Company also provides information system architecture.

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Hoya Corp (7741 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Update 7th May - Yamaha, Misumi, FANCL, Workman, Nintendo

7TH MAY - As we pick up again after the Golden Week holidays, the results and revisions 'reality' will increasingly take over the market narrative....

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • IT’S A WRAP! Part 2: 2020-Q1 Results & Revision Scores

THREE-YEAR LOW - With Bridgestone (5108 JP)'s results and revision now added, our final tally for this season is a 196 basis point decline in our...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 4th February ▲2371 4502 4739 ▼7741 4452 2317

4TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - As expected the 121 Results and 41 Forecast/Revision announcements yesterday took our Results Score 16bps lower to a new...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research

Aequitas: Lenskart Lockup Expiry - US$6.7bn Lockup Release with Everyone Well in the Money

This time around softbank is looking to raise around US$300m via selling some of its stake in Lenskart. The deal is being run by GS.

Sumeet Singh

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