Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. </li>
<li>Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. </li>
<li>LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. </li>
</ul>


HK &amp; China CRE credit impaired loans are rising sharply and high in 3Q23. We believe there is risk that the bank has to take much higher credit costs. 
Not only Mainland China CRE where there are risks. HSBC shows its ECL coverage ratio for HK CRE rising 45% over the past nine months, from 4Q22 to 3Q23. 
LT credit costs shows HSBC's provisioning is like during a benign environment, at ~1/3 of its LT average. Its +34% QoQ credit costs in 4Q22 is worth keeping in mind. 


HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

<ul>
<li>DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. </li>
<li>If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. </li>
</ul>


DBS is now guiding for no profit growth during FY24. This may end up missing with negative growth more statistically likely, in a worsening world. 
Credit metrics are not particularly positive in today's release with SGD215m of credit costs compared with SGD72m in the preceding quarter. 
If rate rises are done or nearly done, than the main positive delta of DBS earnings are also done or nearly done. Management guidance suggests as much too. 


DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

<ul>
<li>Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-chartered-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:193:1" rel="noopener">Standard Chartered (STAN LN)</a> but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans</li>
<li>There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3</li>
<li>Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates </li>
</ul>


Our focus is not on the decimation of earnings at Standard Chartered (STAN LN) but rather the granular detail of stage 2 and stage 3 loans
There is tremendous growth in stage 2 loans in the quarter, which means the bank enters the quarter with a far higher pool that can migrate to stage 3
Stage 3 remains markedly higher provisions, and the bank's rise in credit costs is still fairly low, it can rise another 50% before hitting average rates 


STAN - Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Rava has successfully acquired Peninsula Private Hospital from Australian Unity for a total of $208 million.</li>
<li>Blackstone's Horizon has reported a significant 36% increase in EBITDA and a notable reduction in losses post-IPO in India.</li>
<li>NFD Korea has begun construction on a substantial 300MW AI data center campus located in Danjin, South Korea.</li>
</ul>


Rava has successfully acquired Peninsula Private Hospital from Australian Unity for a total of $208 million.
Blackstone's Horizon has reported a significant 36% increase in EBITDA and a notable reduction in losses post-IPO in India.
NFD Korea has begun construction on a substantial 300MW AI data center campus located in Danjin, South Korea.


Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Sep-2026): Rava buys Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M.

<ul><li>Rava’s Barwon has successfully acquired Peninsula Private Hospital for $208 million from Australian Unity.</li><li>Blackstone's Horizon has reported a significant 36% increase in EBITDA and reduced losses post-IPO in India.</li><li>NFD Korea has begun construction on a substantial 300MW AI data center campus located in Danjin.</li></ul>

Rava’s Barwon has successfully acquired Peninsula Private Hospital for $208 million from Australian Unity.Blackstone's Horizon has reported a significant 36% increase in EBITDA and reduced losses post-IPO in India.NFD Korea has begun construction on a substantial 300MW AI data center campus located in Danjin.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Sep-2026): Rava buys Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M.

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings Plc is a British universal bank and financial services group operating worldwide. It offers a wide range of services including retail and personal banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking, and markets and securities services. The company was founded in British Hong Kong in 1865 and is headquartered in London, England.

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HSBC (HSBA LN)

HSBC - HK & China CRE Credit Impaired Loans Now 25.8% from 20.2% | ECL Coverage for HK CRE up 45%

NYCB, Aozora, now Pfandbriefbank in Germany, CRE risks are clear. HSBC is not only exposed in places like Hong Kong and China, but also material...

Daniel Tabbush

DBS - 0% Growth Guidance for FY24 | Quarterly Credit Costs Surging | As Good as It Gets

DBS is now guiding for 0% profit growth during FY24. The figures out today appear very much 'as good as they get.' Credit metrics are worsening,...

Daniel Tabbush

STAN - Stage 2 Loans Surge | Expect Migration to Stage 3 Loans | Credit Costs Can Move 50% Higher

STAN's traditional credit costs are surging and remain well below long term averages. Rising stage 2 loans are the real concern, with migration...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (15-Sep-2026): Rava buys Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M.

Rava acquired Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M, Blackstone's Horizon reported a 36% EBITDA increase, and NFD Korea began a 300MW data center in...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Sep-2026): Rava buys Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M.

Rava’s Barwon buys Peninsula Private Hospital for $208M, while Blackstone's Horizon sees a 36% EBITDA rise; APAC real estate news includes major...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

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