Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.</li>
<li>Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.</li>
<li>Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward.
Attractive Sectors include Energy and Financials, (and to a lesser extent Staples and Utilities) and these areas remain our primary focus.
Financials (XLF) and Energy (XLE) are hitting new RS highs amid rising rates and new highs in WTI crude oil -- Remain overweight/add exposure on pullbacks.


Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

*Gaming Caught In The Crosshairs: Mainland China indicated that changes are afoot to gaming regulations, including the appointment of government officials to supervise the companies - just as Macau's lucrative gaming licenses come up for re-bidding in 2022; and*Financials Likely Next: There appears to be a genuine timeline for each sector in mainland China to be taken out to the woodshed. Now that the gaming industry is now being placed under firm control, it would appear to only be a matter of time when the financial sector will be re-configured to suit mainland China’s vision – likely ahead of the national elections in 2022.

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We screen thirty European banks, for their dividend yield relative to their dividend pay-out ratios on 2022 consensus estimates, to assess how well is their prospective dividend is covered by forecast profitability</li>
<li>We also screen for attractive valuations, for healthy credit quality metrics and the potential for banks to deliver better returns going forward</li>
<li>In the case of those banks that have built up their provisioning buffers, cost of risk should recede over the coming quarters</li>
<li>We highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-57298707-4faa-42d6-a353-ab1f6ee92fd4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28330:1" rel="noopener">HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unicredit-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21234:1" rel="noopener">UniCredit SpA (UCG IM)</a>, as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abn-amro-group-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24858:1" rel="noopener">ABN AMRO Group NV (ABN NA)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-agricole-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21373:1" rel="noopener">Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danske-bank-a-s" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22336:1" rel="noopener">Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE DC)</a> and, as a recovery and contrarian play, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credit-suisse-group-ag-f4b24f0c-c294-40b3-b491-759f0cb277e9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27915:1" rel="noopener">Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN SW)</a>
</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on our highlighted banks include worse than expected credit quality, as well as weaker than expected revenue generation and higher than expected opex</li>
</ul>


We screen thirty European banks, for their dividend yield relative to their dividend pay-out ratios on 2022 consensus estimates, to assess how well is their prospective dividend is covered by forecast profitability
We also screen for attractive valuations, for healthy credit quality metrics and the potential for banks to deliver better returns going forward
In the case of those banks that have built up their provisioning buffers, cost of risk should recede over the coming quarters
We highlight HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBC US) , Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)  and UniCredit SpA (UCG IM), as well as ABN AMRO Group NV (ABN NA), Credit Agricole Sa (ACA FP), Danske Bank A/S (DANSKE DC) and, as a recovery and contrarian play, Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN SW)

Risks to our positive view on our highlighted banks include worse than expected credit quality, as well as weaker than expected revenue generation and higher than expected opex


European Banks Value Screens – Focus on Dividend Yields and Healthy Dividend Coverage Metrics

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

*Strong Man Strikes Again: Lighting has struck again, not five months since his hiring, Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) Governor Agbal has now been dismissed for raising interest rates. President Erdogan handpicked Sahap Kavcioglu as new CBT Governor. He is the fourth CBT Governor in two years, and a banking professor and newspaper columnist who has argued for lower interest rates, after serving a a lawmaker in Erdogan’s AKP party. We all know what happens when academics are in charge; and*Watch Your Risk: The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and the potential for a TRL gray market would NOT be of surprise at this stage. We continue to worry about counterparty risks should defaults rise. It’s probably not a bad time to start thinking about purchasing CDS protection on single name securities and on the Turkish sovereign.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We know that data can be valuable and is what analysts will turn to for research. The S&amp;P deal to spend USD44bn to buy IHS Markit is breathtaking, and indicative of the value of data. This is one reason that we have for some time now focused on recovery for economies and banks. Data related to the C19 virus simply does not support the continuation of insane government policies. There are important implications for economies, banks and profit recovery.

We know that data can be valuable and is what analysts will turn to for research. The S&amp;P deal to spend USD44bn to buy IHS Markit is breathtaking, and indicative of the value of data. This is one reason that we have for some time now focused on recovery for economies and banks. Data related to the C19 virus simply does not support the continuation of insane government policies. There are important implications for economies, banks and profit recovery. 

Banks – Recovery Data Is Real, Valuable

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is a British universal bank and financial services group that provides banking and financial products and services worldwide. It offers retail, commercial and institutional banking, global banking and markets, wealth management, and private banking. The company was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in London, United Kingdom.

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HSBC (HSBC US)

Stick With Energy and Financials

Indexes and Sectors remain extremely mixed which we believe is likely to remain the case moving forward. Attractive Sectors include Energy and...

Vermilion Research

Mainland China – Here Comes The Rein Again

FINANCIALS IN CROSSHAIRS: Mainland China is appointing government officials to supervise the gaming companies. There appears to be a genuine...

Thomas J. Monaco

European Banks Value Screens – Focus on Dividend Yields and Healthy Dividend Coverage Metrics

We screen European banks for dividend yield and its sustainability, with other valuation metrics; we highlight HSBC, BBVA, Unicredit, ABN Amro,...

Victor Galliano

Turkey - YELP!

TURKEY: Not five months since his hiring, the CBT Governor has been replaced. The TRL’s decline is troublesome, and a TRL gray market would NOT be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Banks – Recovery Data Is Real, Valuable

Data related to the C19 virus simply does not support the continuation of insane government policies. We see economies remaining open, and leading...

Daniel Tabbush

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