Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.</li>
<li>In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.</li>
<li>These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.</li>
</ul>


This week some of the strongest names in HSI are covered.
In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends or act as a continuation pattens.
These are likely to prove crucial to Hong Kong and Greater China.


HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturities</li><li>Based on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risks</li><li>Our analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer maturitiesBased on that, we use the ValueCo ESG opinions to assess where banks stand with regards to such risksOur analysis indeed reveals a relation between such opinions and the steepness in the curve, but that relationship is more clear when we purely focus on the environmental part of such opinion.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assets</li><li>Personnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as ambassador to U.S.</li><li>Corruption /: Jilin Province Trust’s former chairman sentenced to 14 years in prison</li></ul>

Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assetsPersonnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as ambassador to U.S.Corruption /: Jilin Province Trust’s former chairman sentenced to 14 years in prison

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.</li><li>A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.</li><li>The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.</li></ul>

The bank runs in the global banking system will continue to pose downside risk to global banking stocks, including Thai banks, until the Fed and the ECB can come up with systematic solutions, and a worsening of the situation would lead to huge unrealized losses from investment in government bonds.A temporary full-deposit guarantee is another potential way to address the banking crisis; note that the US guarantees around USD10trn out of total deposits of USD18trn, and the FDIC incurs costs of just USD100bn.The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

United Kingdom

HSBC Holdings plc is the holding company for the HSBC Group. The Company provides a variety of international banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, trade, trusteeship, securities, custody, capital markets, treasury, private and investment banking, and insurance.  The Group operates worldwide.

HSBC Holdings (5 HK)

HSBC, Sun Hung Kai Properties, and CK Hutchison Holdings

In real estate, banking, and global infrastructure sectors. They have been consolidating for months and should resolve soon to establish new trends...

Untying The Gordian Knot

ESG Opinions Are Affecting the Shape of Bank Spread Curves

When bank bond issuers face ESG risks such as climate change, this should be translated in the market through significant pick-up on longer...

ABN AMRO

CX Daily: Five Things to Know About Chinese Trust Firms’ Scramble to Offload Risky Assets

Trust /: Five things to know about Chinese trust firms’ scramble to offload risky assets Personnel /: China appoints vice foreign minister as...

Caixin Global

Special Report: Bank Runs

The longer the banking crisis is drawn-out, the greater the risks related to a credit crunch and the higher the chance of a global economic recession.

Krungthai XSpring

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot